ReportsStats Q2 2018

“Competing without software is like competing without electricity.”
-Naval Ravikant (2016)

1. DRIVERS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

“The great lesson in microeconomics is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you and when it’s going to kill you.” -Charlie Munger (1994)

MOBILE FIRST

“The smartphone is the sun and everything else orbits it.” -Ben Evans (2015) follow
7.6b total world population. Of them:
5.7b adults=age>15yrs (74%)
8.5b total mobile connections, SIM cards (111%)
5.1b unique mobile phone users (67%)
3.0b smartphone users, installed base (39%)
USA passed 50% of homes being mobile-only in 2017
6.4b w/ electric power (84%)
5.5b TV users (69%)
3.1b w/ access to working toilets (41%)
3.0b iOS+Android computers (39%)
1.5b PCs (20%)
1.2b laptop PCs (16%)
1.1b tablets (14%)
1/3 of preschoolers (Australia) own smartphones/tablets
2/3 of primary school-aged children (Australia) own smartphones/tablets
1.4b car owners (18%)
20% of adults (USA) own a voice-activated smart speaker
outpacing adoption rates of smartphones (which are seeing 0% growth)
18% of adults (USA) own a smartwatch

THE NEW U.N. (pop≈MAU)

“No nation imagines itself coterminous with mankind.” -Benedict Anderson (1983) must read
Security Council’s permanent members:
2.3b Christianity (30%) must watch: 15:15s → 21:56s
2.2b Facebook (28%)
1.8b Islam (23%)
1.5b WhatsApp (20%)
1.4b China (19%)
Security Council’s non-permanent members:
1.4b India (18%)
1.1b Hinduism (14%)
1.0b WeChat (13%)
1.0b Instagram (11%)
810m QQ (10%)
560m Qzone (7.3%)
510m European Union (6.7%)
390m Sina Weibo (5.1%)
340m Twitter (4.3%)
330m USA (4.3%)
Not represented in the General Assembly:
1.2b non-religious (15%)
1.1b people with no legal identification (14%)

THE INTERNET

“On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.” -Peter Steiner (1993)
4.0b active internet users (53% of world pop)
3.7b active *mobile* internet users (93% of internet users)
770m in China > pop of Europe
vs 480m in India, 290m in USA
3.8b email users (95%), 3.2b active social media users (79%)
23% of 8-11s and 74% of 12-15s (UK) have a social media profile
Wordpress powers 30% of the *entire* internet
vs 30% of all web traffic is porn (25m sites, 12% of total)
monthly unique visitors (USA, aggregate brand sites)
250m Google, 210m+ Oath (incl Yahoo), 210m Facebook
21 Mbps avg d/l speed mobile internet
77 operators in 49 countries completed pre-commercial 5G trials in 2017
USA to pioneer in 2018: high-res video + AR/VR will drive early adoption
proliferation of unlimited data plans, mobile data usage up 25% (YoY 2017)
~1% of internet data on Surface web (indexed by search engines)
vs 99% on Deep web (not indexed by search engines)
fastest growing data on the internet
Dark Web: 100% anonymous
75% used for recreational drugs, $0.5m/day transacted
$1 for a SSN, $20k to hire a hitman, $100k if target is VIP

CLOUD COMPUTING

“This (Dropbox) is the fastest-growing SaaS company we have ever worked with.” -Bryan Schreier (2017)
2.3b people use personal cloud storage (30% of world pop)
97% of USA internet users have used online storage
if byte of data = 1 grain of rice, then:
kB ≈ 1 cup, MB ≈ 8 bags, GB ≈ 3 shipping container lorries
$0.03/GB cost of digital storage (2017), vs $569/GB in 1990
$0.05 cost of 1m transistors (2013), vs $527 in 1990
$0.1 cost per instance on AWS (2018), vs $0.4 in 2008
computing *Big Bang* = AWS (2006) + iPhone (2007)
iPhone 6 CPU transistors = 625x 1995 Pentium transistors
world’s most powerful supercomputer: IBM-built “Summit”
USA regains title after years of Chinese dominance
world’s highest-capacity microSD card: SanDisk Ultra microSDXC UHS-I
400GB at $250, stores ~40hrs of full HD video
world’s largest-capacity SSD: Nimbus Data 100TB ExaDrive DC100 SSD
people/businesses continue relentless “march to the cloud”
36% of global IT infrastructure spent = private+public clouds (2016)
Google Drive: 800m registered users, 4m enterprise customers
Dropbox (pure-player): 500m users, 11m+ paying customers, $13b mkt cap
fastest SaaS company to $1b/yr recurring revenues (8.3 yrs)
Box (pure-player): 58m registered users, 10m paying customers, $3.5b mkt cap

THE BLOCKCHAIN

“Bitcoin is the real Occupy Wall Street.” -Julian Assange (2017)
$272b network value of all 1.6k altcoins/tokens great read
19 crypto-assets w/network value > $1b
1 BTC > 5x Gold oz, bitcoin overtook gold in Apr-2017
$3.4b bitcoin mining revenues 1H 2018 > $3.3b in 2017
Coinbase has 20m users, available in 30+ countries
#1 free app (App Store) for a week in Dec-2017
latest valuation range $5b-8b, up from $1.6b in Aug-2017
“energy-hungry” bitcoin to use 0.5% of world’s electricity by 2018E
anonymous/decentralized trust enabled by blockchains: expensive read working paper
security of blockchain is linear to expenditure in mining power
vs door lock increases house security by more than cost of the lock
cost for an attacker to take over 51% of mining network:
$6b+ in hardware, $4m+/day in energy consumption
Australian Securities Exchange starts using blockchain to clear/settle trades
London Stock Exchange + IBM to develop blockchain platform for issuing shares
NASDAQ considers becoming a crypto exchange, once regulation “matures”
HSBC+ING perform world’s first finance transaction using blockchain
USA adoption status quasi mainstream:
State of Nebraska: bill LB 695 → smart contracts are enforceable
State of Delaware: shareholder’s list (legally mandatory) → OK on a blockchain

ROBOTS

“Drones will be as ubiquitous as sprinklers.” -Chris Anderson (2017) follow
iPhones+Android phones sold > Japanese cameras *ever*
1.4b iPhones sold (since launched) vs 30m GoPro
Canon discontinues last film camera, Nikon still offers two
Google searches for ‘dashboard cam’ = 3x ‘autonomous driving’
$4k for Puck VLP-16, Velodyne’s cheapest LiDAR in stock
Boston Dynamic’s bipedal robot Atlas does backflip watch
100k+ warehouse robots “employed” by Amazon
vs 125k warehouse employees
Walmart’s shelf-scanning robots rolled out in 50+ stores
10yrs ago drones were $m+ USA military secret tech
now Chinese drones rule the sky, DJI has ~70% mkt sh
$399 for Spark: its cheapest HD-video drone
1.1m hobbyist drone fleet (USA), 870k registered owner-hobbyists
110k+ commercial drone fleet (USA), 75k certified pilots
autonomous fixed-wing style airplane Zipline reaches top speed of 128 km/h
100km/h cruising speed, 160km range, 1.75kg of carrying cargo capacity
Australian lifeguards use drone to rescue two teenagers watch
<20% of Earth’s seafloor mapped (100% goal → 2030)
unmanned mapping barges + autonomous underwater vehicles being deployed
Saildrone startup redefining ocean data w/ unmanned sailing drones

MACHINE LEARNING

“The highest forms of understanding we can achieve are laughter and human compassion.” -Richard Feynman (1988)
computing power for AI training doubling every 3.5mo
vs 18mo for Moore’s Law
22+ co designing custom chips for deep learning acceleration
Microsoft achieves human-parity in speech recog, >95% match
NLP translates Chinese news articles to Eng = human accuracy
Google words recog surpasses human threshold, <5% error rate
Speech-to-Text API recognizes 120 lang: $0.02/min for audio
Reading comprehension test: human performance=82.304
🥇Yuanfandao=83.982, 🥈Google=83.877, 🥉Microsoft=82.849
AlphaZero becomes best Chess and Go player read “Techmate”
starts from blank slate, no historical data, except game rules
24hrs to convincingly defeat world-champion programs in each case
FBI’s facial recognition database includes 50% of adult pop (USA)
CBP deploys Vehicle Face System scanning drivers’ faces
ICE has access to 2b license plate recognition database
fake celebrity-porn videos created using ML
mapping famous faces onto performers’ bodies
cpu vision identifies skin cancer as accurately as a panel of doctors
“ChestX-ray8” has 100k+ chest X-Rays annotated images to train data
Paige.ai granted access to MSKCC’s database of 25m pathology slides

SOLAR ENERGY

“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” -Bob Dylan (1965)
0.0249$/kWh record-low solar energy contract, -100x since 1976
learning rate: cost falls 22% for every doubling in capacity
~1b people around the world w/o power, untapped market!
new capacity globally since 2012: renewable > net fossil fuel
165GW renewable (2017) vs 70GW net fossil fuel
570m LED bulbs in 2017 = closing 160+ coal power plants
cumulative installed solar photovoltaic capacity
🥇China (130GW), 🥈USA (50GW), 🥉Japan (50GW)
USA: #1 source of new capacity additions in Q1 2018
China: growth far outstripping other sources
Saudi Arabia (#2 oil producer) + SoftBank to build world’s largest solar farm
$200b investment will add 200GW in capacity
on Sun 6-May-2018 solar panels generated 27% of UK’s electricity
vs 25% from both natural gas and nuclear
cumulative installed wind energy capacity
🥇China (160GW), 🥈USA (90GW), 🥉Germany (60GW)
fastest-growing occupations (USA): solar installers, wind turbine techs
CA mandates solar panel on all new homes, starting 2020
LA to add solar panels to 220k street lighting poles, before 2028 Olympics

ELECTRIC VEHICLES special report

“Mr. Musk—who is 45 years old, the same age as Mr. Ford was in 1908 when he released the Model T.” -WSJ (2017)
52% of new car sales in Norway (2017): electric
first time fossil-fuel mkt sh below 50%
3m+ EVs currently on the road
🥇EV fleet China=1.2m, 🥈USA=780k, 🥉Japan=200k
320k+ Nissan Leaf sold: best-selling highway-capable EV
“ban all diesel cars” club: 7 of the top 10 economies
by 2030: Germany, India, Italy, Brazil
by 2040: China, UK, France
California targets 5m clean cars by 2030, up from 350k
$2.5b budget: 250k charging stations, $200m/yr in subsidies ($7k/car)
LA transport auth: convert all 2.2k buses into zero-emission fleet by 2030
EV-only lineup: Volvo (2019), M-Benz (2022), Peugeot (2025), VW (2030)
Porsche to invest $8b by 2020 to electrify entire lineup
to deploy 500 fast chargers across 190 USA Porsche dealerships
electric cars outnumber public charging stations 6:1
UK obligates motorway service/gas stations to add charging points
$25b in battery purchase plan by VW > Tesla’s $18b plan
car dealers, brace for a lot of pain
50% of car maintenance attributable to internal combustion engine
$200 Chevy Bolt (annual maintenance cost) vs $600 VW Golf

CREATIVE CAPITAL

“An S&P 500 company is being replaced every two weeks.” -Richard Foster (2012)
23m total businesses in USA, 6.5k publicly listed companies
top 5 by mkt cap: hq=USA, exchange=NASDAQ, comp adv=tech
21 Chinese co went public on USA exchanges in 2017
#6 largest company in world: Tencent
hq=China, exchange=SEHK, comp adv=tech
52% of Fortune 500 companies in 2000 → now extinct
300k/yr startups/companies funded in USA (2017)
1k/yr new VC-backed companies started
2011-17 USA company fundraising: private mkt > public mkt
$75b invested by USA VCs (2017), $45b in 1H 2018
10 states with VC ecosystem >$1b: #1 CA>$36b, #2 NY>$11b
fundraising = blockchain’s killer app
code/product now priced in real time
$13.6b+ via Initial Coin Offering “ICO” (1H 2018)
vs $1.6b invested by VCs (seed stage, USA, 1H 2018)
1/3 of new VC funds docs: explicitly allow purchase of crypto assets
$36b issued in P2P loans via LendingClub, 3m borrowers
$5b raised by social fundraising platform GoFundMe, 50m donors
$4b pledged to Kickstarter projects globally, 140k+ funded projects
$300m paid to 100k artists using Patreon

CHINA 从0到1

“The work ethic in Chinese tech companies far outpaces their US rivals.” -Michael Moritz (2018) read article
“9-9-6” standard schedule of a Chinese tech employee
9am to 9pm, 6 days/week
much greater supply of STEM workers
China pop = 4x USA, China tech employees = 10x USA
China PhD’s on AI > USA
China baffled w/ Silicon Valley’s hard time with hardware
in China: shipping atoms = shipping bits
Peter Thiel’s Zero to One, translated into Mandarin
bestselling business book in China 必读
Silicon Valley (10x innovation) terrified of China (20x), Europe (1x)
China = 25% of global VC (up from 5% in 2008)
China R&D spending growing 18%/yr, vs USA at 4%/yr
#1 unicorn startup: Ant Financial $150b (China) > 2x Uber $60b (USA)
$10b+ unicorns: China = 2x USA. Top 50: China = 2x USA, (EU=0)
Top 20 internet companies by mkt value today: USA=11, China=9
5yrs ago: USA=9, China=2
4yrs ago (Sep-2014): Alibaba’s $25b IPO on NYSE, biggest ever
China cuts restrictions, allows foreign majority ownership for several businesses
Tesla could now own 100% of an electric car factory in China
WeChat = entire China ecosystem, almost no one outside of China ever uses

2. WINNER TAKES ALL

“You call it monopoly, I call it enterprise.” -John D. Rockefeller (1911) watch episodes

APPLE (mkt cap $0.9+ *trillion*)

“Just the way he advertised: Jesus, Gandhi, Me!” -Bill Burr (2012) watch
$267b cash on balance sheet > Finland’s GDP
1.3b+ active devices across: iPhone, iPad, Watch, Mac, iPod, AppleTV
60%+ of Americans own an Apple product
iPhone: most successful product of all times, now stagnate
1.4b+ cumulative iPhones sold since launch (Q2 2007)
vs 400m Sony Walkman, 130m Nokia 3310 back in stock
$640 avg selling price, vs $200+ for rest of industry
#1 by installed base in China, 50% mkt sh in Beijing
two tablet markets: iPads and generic cheap black plastic
iPad = 89% of tablets >$200 in USA
biggest watchmaker in the world
overtook Rolex, 15m/yr Apple Watch vs 1m/yr Rolex
Apple Watch sales > all Swiss watchmakers (Q4 2017)
Apple Watch alone would be a Fortune 300 company
Google is paying $3b/year to remain the default search engine on iOS devices
$27b earned by iOS developers in 2017 > Starbucks Corp’s total revenue
500m walk into Apple’s 400+ stores, clothing/apparel to launch soon
$12b+ spent in R&D during 2017 (vs $7m in lobbying)
500m Siri users, 160+ open positions within the division (all-time high)
Project Titan: 2nd largest EV fleet in CA with 55 SDV, behind GM

AMAZON (mkt cap $0.8+ *trillion*)

“If Amazon is in your line of business: Sell now. If Amazon is not in your line of business: Sell now; your business sucks.” -@GSElevator (2017)
#1 online retailer: 28% mkt sh, 4% of *all* USA retail
#1 online grocery: 18% mkt sh (2x Walmart)
1/4 of USA homes buy groceries online
#1 ebook seller: 83% mkt sh
#1 company by R&D spending: $23b (2017), vs $13m in lobbying
1.4k quarterly earnings calls mentioned the word ‘Amazon’
2x more than ‘Google’ or ‘Apple’
#1 cloud infrastructure provider: AWS=40% mkt sh
$20b in rev > Σ cloud(Microsoft+Google+Salesforce+Oracle+Alibaba)
#1 voice-powered speaker: 60%+ mkt sh
30m Echo units w/ 30k skills control 4k smart devices from 1k+ unique brands
Echo Dot = best-selling amazon.com product (any manufacturer, any category) get yours
#1 fulfillment company? #2 largest private employer in USA by FTE
32 Amazon Air planes, 6k trailers, 44% of USA pop within 20mi of fulfillment node
Amazon Go: cashier-less store. Open in Seattle, SF+Chicago next
>50% units sold on Amazon 2017, from 3rd-party sellers
#4 in ads: surpassed Twitter+Snapchat. Going after Google+Facebook
50% online searches for products start/end on amazon.com
100m+ Amazon prime members: $1.3k annual spending by member
vs $1k/yr by Amazon customer, vs $1.7k/yr by Echo owner

ALPHABET (mkt cap $0.8 *trillion*)

“Google searches are the most important dataset ever collected on the human psyche.” -Seth Stephens-Davidowitz (2017) must read
7 products with 1b+ MAU each
Search, Android, Maps, Chrome, YouTube, Google Play, Gmail
76% mkt sh in online search (desktop+mobile)
Android overtakes Windows as the *internet* most used OS
40%+ mkt sh, 2.3b active Android devices
Google Maps adds 11 Disney Parks to explore via Street View
satellite mapping outpacing Street View vehicles
2b Chrome installs in active use
#1 browser across all devices (60% mkt sh), vs Safari (#2, ~15%)
1.8b MAU on YouTube
1b videos captioned in 10 languages
800m/mo Google Drive users
500m users who backup 1.2b/day photos/videos
4m paying customers on G Suite
$17b+ spent in R&D in 2017, vs $18m in lobbying (#1 in USA)
Google Assistant on 400m Android devices, available with 5k major brands
3m+ Google Home smart speakers sold in Q1 2018, first time ahead of Echo
Waymo’s fleet > 5m self-driving miles on public roads
logged more miles than all other competitors
$550m bet on Chinese e-commerce JD.com

MICROSOFT (mkt cap $0.8 *trillion*)

“Here comes the sun (doo doo doo doo).” -George Harrison (1969)
Windows + Office = the legacy business
88% mkt sh in desktop operating system
1.5b/day Windows devices (installed base)
1.2b/day Office users, largest productivity service available
135m/mo paid active users (commercial licenses)
30m Office 365 consumer subscribers (cloud version)
Office 365 = 2x G Suite’s penetration in businesses
400m Outlook users, 300m Skype users
Cloud + AI platform = new engine of innovation
$26b+ for LinkedIn (2016): 560m profiles, 10m companies posting jobs
$8b for GitHub (2018): outbidding Google, Amazon, Tencent, Atlassian
13% mkt sh in cloud computing infra w/ Azure
14 consecutive qtrs: revenue growing triple digits
Xiaomi to use Azure for data storage, bandwidth and computing
150m/mo Cortana users
Word’s Resume Assistant feature (powered by LinkedIn) writes your resume
real-time translator: power point (60 languages), Skype (10 languages)
$13b spent in R&D in FY2017 (vs $8m in lobbying)
samples cashier-less technology to Walmart and other retailers
140m+ Minecraft copies sold, 60m/mo Xbox Live users

FACEBOOK (mkt cap $0.6 *trillion*)

“If you’re offered a seat on a rocket ship, don’t ask what seat! Just get on.” -Sheryl Sandberg (2012)
60%+ mobile social traffic, 30%+ digital ad revenue
1b+/mo use Facebook, Groups, Messenger, WhatsApp
70m biz profiles, 6m/mo active advertisers
Facebook: 2.2b MAU, 1.5b DAU
1.3b fake accounts closed (last 6 mos)
post CA-impasse: stock price & user engagement → *intact*
Messenger: 1.3b MAU with 500 FTE, 35b/day messages
goal: never dial a 1-800 number again
56% of people rather message than call customer service
100m interacting with ‘M’, messenger’s virtual assistant
400m/day call/video chat, 20m businesses, 300k bots
WhatsApp: 1.5b MAU with 250 FTE, 65b/day messages
co-founders J. Koum + B. Acton quit, left $1.3b “on the table” …ads to come?
begins verifying biz accounts (green checkmark on profiles)
WhatsApp for business launched in USA, UK, Indonesia
Instagram: 1b MAU with 700 FTE, 450m/day stories
25m biz-specific profiles, 2m/mo active advertisers
blue checkmark = seal of legitimacy, selling for $1k-7k on black mkt
$8b R&D in 2017 (vs $12m in lobbying)
M translates live Eng-Spa messages between buyers-sellers

TESLA (mkt cap $58b)

“Musk has made every Tesla customer a venture capitalist.” -Steve LeVine (2016)
most valuable USA car maker: ahead of Ford and GM Damodaran’s valuation
creating the best car ownership experience on the planet
buy online + mobile service (~30% of all service jobs)
autopilot “summons” vehicle to pull into/out parking lot
over-the-air *software-update* fixes stopping distance concern
100k+ vehicles delivered in 2017 (<1% of cars sold in USA)
*European* sales: Model S > Mercedes S Class > BMW Series 7
Model S, starts at $80k, WR longest-range electric sedan
Model S P100D w/ Ludicrous+ goes 0-60mph in 2.389s
faster than any Ferrari or Lamborghini
Model X, starts at $80k, longest-range electric SUV
NHTSA awarded a 5-star safety rating, 1st for any SUV
Model 3 starts at ~$35k, production “finally” normalizing → 500/day
0-60mph in 5.6s, 210km/h top speed, 350km range
450k+ reservations at $1k deposit
Roadster 2G, to be quickest production car ever: 0-60mph in 1.9s
Elon: “Like a flying metal suit, but in car form.”
reservations starts at $50k, ‘Founder Series’ full price of $250k *upfront* place reservation
$1.4b R&D in 2017: Tesla’s FTEs = 1/5 Ford, = 1/5 GM
Energy now 12% of revenue

3. DISRUPTING THE INCUMBENTS

“The battle between every startup and incumbent comes down to whether the startup gets distribution before the incumbent gets innovation.” -Alex Rampell (2015) follow

DATING

“So, I asked him: What did you search? And he goes: Jewish and my zip code!” -Aziz Ansari (2015) watch
#1 place (USA) where singles met their last first date: app
56% of singles have created a dating profile
45%+ of singles have dated someone they met online
Match Group owns top 45 brands: 7m paid members total
Tinder, Match.com, OkCupid, Plenty of Fish, Hinge
Tinder: 50m active users, 3m paid members
#2 app by consumer spend global 2017 (AppStore+GooglePlay)
vs #1 = Netflix → “Netflix and Chill?”
Bumble: 30m active users
$b acquisition offer by Match Group, rejected
both companies copying and suing each other
Facebook to launch dating feature, hires people from Tinder, Hinge, eHarmony
10m active members on ‘compensated dating’ app Seeking Arrangement
8m sugar babies, 2m sugar daddy/momma
#1 free social networking app in China’s iOS App Store
1/7 of kids ages 12-17 have sent a sext (sex+text)
increases 4%/yr each additional year of age
UK’s compulsory age verification check for online porn, deadline delayed
porn is the biggest development in sexuality research ever
Pornhub: 22m registered users, 80m/day visits to pornhub.com, 100b/yr video views

RIDES

“The height of civilization isn’t the poor owning cars but the rich sharing bikes.” -Horace Dediu (2017) follow
NYC taxi medallion: from $1.3m in 2013 (record price)
to <$300k avg in June 2018
NYC considering cash bailout for medallion owners
ride-hailing services overtook rental cars
first studies out: ride-hailing increased traffic congestion read study
Uber: moves more people than the entire airline industry
more people using Uber in NYC than yellow cabs
630+ cities, 65 countries, 15m/day rides
Lyft: 20th qtr w/ 100%+ YoY rev growth
640 cities, 95% of USA pop, all 50 states, 10m/week rides
~35% USA mkt sh w/ 32m MAU, vs Uber ~65% w/ 42m MAU
Dockless bike-sharing: 16m bikes in China, replacing 10% car travels
Shanghai: 1.5m bikes (1:16 residents), Beijing: 2.4m bikes (1:5 residents)
Ofo and Mobike claim 100m users in China’s tier-1 cities
Hellobike claims 100m users across 180 tier-2 and 3 cities
Uber acquires bike-share company JUMP, Lyft acquires Motivate
sidewalk wars: Lime raises $250m @ $750m, vs Bird $150m @ $1b
Dockless bike / e-bike / e-scooters company Limebike (USA)
operates in 70 USA cities, 5 European cities, $1 to unlock and $2/hr for riding
sidewalk wars: Lime raises $250m @ $750m, vs Bird $150m @ $1b

ASSISTANTS special report

“Alexa is a revelation for the blind.” -Ian Bogost (2018)
people speak ~150 words/min, vs type ~40 words/min
voice speech recognition tech → open source
power-users by age: 25-49s=65%, 18-24s=59%, 50+=57%
best-selling consumer gadget 2017: smart speaker
9m units shipped in Q1 2018, +210% YoY
fastest-growing consumer tech, to surpass 50m by 2018
#2 location of smart speaker: kitchen
most common shop-by-voice category: groceries (20%)
20% Americans own a smart speaker, up 128% (2016)
Amazon’s Echo: ~60% USA mkt sh, 2.5m shipped in Q1 2018
Microsoft Cortana integrated with Amazon Alexa
Sonos multi-voice smart speaker S13, supports Alexa first read $SONO S-1
Garmin’s car navigation Speak, powered by Alexa
Google Home: ~30% USA mkt sh, 3.2m shipped in Q1 2018
orders from Walmart and Carrefour enabled via Google Assistant
Bose QC35 II headphones, powered by Google Assistant
Ikea lightbulbs integrated with Alexa and Google Assistant
Alibaba’s Tmall Genie X1, powered by AliGenie, 1.1m shipped in Q1 2018
Apple: HomePod powered by Siri, starting at $349
Facebook: working to release “Aloha” to market

COMMUNICATIONS

“😂 word of the year 2015” -Oxford Dictionaries (2015)
text messaging is the most used data service in the world
3-Dec-1992: first SMS message, 20b/day today
vs 65b/day on WhatsApp, 40b/day on WeChat
400m active users on Apple’s iMessage, launching for biz
50%+ of USA households no longer have landlines
2m+ developers on Twilio’s cloud communication API
customers lines to VoIP migration, target dates:
Deutsche Telekom (2018), Orange (2020), BT (2025)
Unicode approves 160 new emojis (2.8k total to date)
“Face with Tears of Joy” emoji = most popular emoji
most-used emoji on Twitter, 2.1x more than ❤️ (#2)
top langs for web content: 🥇English>50%, 🥈Russian=6%, 🥉German=6%
NSA collected metadata on 530m phone calls in 2017, 3.5x 2016
open source Signal Protocol powers the encryption of messages across:
Facebook’s WhatsApp, Microsoft’s Skype, Google’s Allo
Slack: 8m DAU, 3m paying users, 70k paying companies (65% Fortune 100)
used by Police Dept of Hartford, CT
~3t photos taken on film ever, 1t by iPhone users (2016)
most pictured: #1 scenery, #2 information I need to remember
Apple’s Podcasts app: 550k shows, 20m episodes, from 155 countries in 100+ langs

FRAUD (ADS=PROPAGANDA)

“So it learns information about me?” -Ron Swanson (2017) watch
$210b internet ad spending > TV ad spending
2018E: *mobile* ad spending USA > TV (first time)
duopoly: Google + Facebook > print + radio ad industry
700 ad networks w/ 100k+ clicks analyzed = 15% avg fraud
only 23 networks = fraud-free
8 networks = 100% fraudulent, 35 networks = 50% fraudulent
Google removed 3.2b ads for policy violations, up from 1b in 2016
320k publishers blocked, up from 100k
fake WhatsApp on Play Store downloaded by 1m+ users
Global ad blocking users: 380m mobile, 230m desktop
120m active devices use Adblock Plus
1.2m Instagram followers of CGI influencer @lilmiquela follow her
480 of the top 50k websites track visitors’ keystrokes
2b stolen passwords/usernames on the black market
Adobe developing image manipulation detection to spot photoshopped images read paper
‘deepfake’-like videos: opportunities for new and powerful forms of manipulation read article
400+ websites infected with Coinhive (mines cryptocurrencies in the background)
YouTube viewers’ CPUs were being used to mine cryptocurrency via ads
FBI: 1 in 4 victims respond by wiring money to fraudsters (USA)
two types companies: been hacked, don’t know they’ve been hacked

PAYMENTS (CREDIT’S CAC)

“This is a Trojan horse of epic proportions. And the US consumer will easily be co-opted.” -Josh Wolfe (2018) follow
credit/debit cards payments > cash payments
contactless payments: 91%=Australia, 45%=UK, 5%=USA
18% of adults owns a credit card
Visa + Mastercard ≈ 80% mkt sh, get paid ~3%/tx
1.7b people remain unbanked (22%), untapped mkt!
$1b+/day now processed by mobile money industry
China’s mobile payments market, world’s largest. Users:
830m WeChat Pay, 520m Alipay, 100m Baidu Wallet
PayPal: 240m active accounts incl 20m merchant accounts
$12b payments via Venmo in Q1 2018
more valuable than American Express, $100b vs $85b
Square: 90m customer profiles, 30k stores, 7m active Cash App users
$2.5b in credit: 400k loans through Square Capital (since ’14)
50% of USA shops now accept Apple Pay, 200m active users
Apple Pay Cash (P2P service) live, ask Siri and pay
Apple-branded credit card to be launched with Goldman Sachs
Walmart Pay: #3 wallet in USA > Android pay
Stripe: credit cards and ACH debits transactions across 25 countries
supports/partners with ApplePay, WeChat Pay, Alipay

Adyen becomes eBay’s primary payment provider read IPO prospectus

COMMERCE

“World’s largest company by sales (Walmart) is now the perceived underdog.” -The Economist (2017)
9k retail stores closed in USA 2017 > 6.2k in 2008
growth rate for mobile tx = 4x desktop, = 10x brick & mortar
Etsy=2m sellers (99.9% USA counties), Stitch Fix=2.7m clients
consumer goods’ ARPU: global avg= $830
#1 UK=$2.1k, #2 USA=$1.8k, #14 China=$0.9k
$1t online sales (China), 80% mobile, 21% of retail sales
$25b Alibaba’s singles day, hits $1b in 2min, $10b in 1hr 6min
90% mobile, 810m+ orders made
$445b online retail sales (USA), 34% mobile, 13% of retail sales
USA largest shopping events (by sales, 2017)
$6.6b Cyber Monday, $5.0b Black Friday
$110b holiday season (Nov+Dec)
holiday debit+credit card sales: Amazon > Walmart (first time)
Walmart acquires 77% of Flipkart for $16b, outbids Amazon, buys out SoftBank
Flipkart claims 100m users, India’s #1 online marketplace
Walmart.com expands online grocery delivery, to cover 40%+ of USA pop
Shopify has 610k+ merchants. Stock up +860% since IPO
6yrs to hit first $b in GMV, latest $b in 4 days
$110b spend in global app stores 2018E ≈ GDP of Morocco
App Store: net rev/download ≈ 5x Google Play, net rev/device ≈ 10x Google Play

TV

“For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain, there can be no mercy. There is but one rule: hunt or be hunted.” -Francis Underwood (2014)
2018 budget for original programming
$7b Netflix, $5b Amazon, $3b Hulu, $2b HBO, $1b Apple, $1b Facebook
Netflix (Oscars=2): 100m+ paid subs globally
#1 non-game app by revenue (App Store + Google Play)
USA: 60m paid subs > all cable companies combined
libraries: #1 Japan 6.3k titles, #2 USA 5.6k (up 2x since 2013)
Amazon (Oscars=3): movie library is 4x Netflix, 2x Hulu
26m USA subs,  won Premier League streaming rights
Disney: ends deal with Netflix, to launch streaming service in 2019
Sports (ESPN+ for 5/mo or $50/yr) + Family (Disney/Pixar)
90m ESPN subs, crown jewel of cable TV, in your face Netflix watch 1991 ad
Hulu (controlled by Disney): 20m USA subscribers
1st streaming service to win an Emmy for best drama
Time Warner: 5m HBO Now subscribers, 2m downloads for PeopleTV app
Apple: partners with Steven Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey
Baidu-controlled iQiyi has 60m+ paying subscribers, to launch physical movie theatre
YouTubeTV: live TV from 60+ networks (local sports + news). No cable box required
$40/mo, cancel anytime, available in ~100 markets, claims 300k+ subscribers
Snapchat + NBC: “Stay Tuned” reaches 30m views, live broadcast 2018 Winter Olympics
Twitter monetization: video=fastest growing. Closes deals w/ Disney and NBCUniversal

MUSIC

“We don’t ask you for free iPhones. Please don’t ask us to provide you with our music for no compensation.” -Taylor Swift (2015)
streaming is now industry’s biggest source of revenue
third successive year of revenue growth
65% of USA music revenue in 2017: streaming
songs streamed in USA > all digital downloads to date
Spotify revenue ≈ 30% of global music industry
75m+ paid subscribers, 170m+ total active
~8% equity swap w/ Tencent Music Entertainment
TME has 15m paying subs, to IPO in Wall Street in 2018
48m paid subscribers on Apple Music
Apple Music to overtake Spotify: growing 2m/mo vs at 1.3m/mo (Q1 2018)
YouTube Music available in 17 countries, free with ads, $10/mo without ads
$12/mo with YouTube Premium video
Taylor Swift (highest paid musician globally) released all her albums on Spotify
releases *video* of “Delicate” on Spotify before YouTube
“Reputation” album released 10-Nov-17, best-selling album of 2017
100+ YouTube music videos with >1b views vs 11 Spotify songs have passed 1b streams
“Hello” by Adele, fastest video to hit 1b views on YouTube: 87 days
vs “Shape of You” by Ed Sheeran, fastest song to hit 1b streams on Spotify: 153 days
“Despacito” by Luis Fonsi, released on Jan-2017, most viewed YouTube video: 5.3b views watch
Amazon Music Unlimited, at $10/m or $8/mo for Prime subscribers, has 20m subscribers

BONUS

“Facts don’t care about your feelings.” -Ben Shapiro (2016)
Brokerage: 4m accts on $0 fee app Robinhood > E*TRADE
Encyclopedia: blockchain-based Everipedia claims 3m/mo users
Grammar: 10m/day checking grammar on Grammarly
Gym: 5m Fitness Blender subscribers
Homework: 100m 12-18 year olds asking questions on Brainly
Karaoke: 45m+ downloads of 15s video-sharing app Tik Tok
Locksmith: 1.5k KeyMe smart-kiosks across USA
Lost & found: 15m Tile trackers sold, Samsonite luggage “Tile-inside”
Meditation: 26m downloads of Calm (Apple app of the year)
Muslims: 12m/mo pray using Muslim Pro app
Neighborhoods: 175k neighborhoods on Nextdoor
Period: 12m women track their period with Flo app
Policy: 200m users petitioning governments on Change.org
Religion: 20k religious communities on Pray.com (hackathon hosted by the Vatican)
Rockets: launched by SpaceX (YTD 2018) > any company/country
Spas: 170m/qtr appointments via wellness marketplace MindBody
Textbooks: 100k students at 100 campuses using online textbooks by Packback
Theaters: 2m subscribed to “one movie a day” service MoviePass
Trivia: 2.4m+ concurrent players during Super Bowl on live trivia app HQ
Virtual world: Second Life has 800k MAUs