ReportsStats Q1 2019

“Competing without software is like competing without electricity.”
-Naval Ravikant (2016)

1. DRIVERS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

“The great lesson in microeconomics is
to discriminate between when technology is going to help
you and when it’s going to kill you.” -Charlie Munger (1994)

SMART PLATFORMS

“The smartphone is the sun
and everything else orbits it.” -Ben Evans (2015)
follow
7.7b world population. Of them:
5.7b adults → age > 15yrs (74%)
7.9b mobile connections, SIM cards (103%)
5.1b unique mobile phone users (66%)
USA passed 50% of homes being mobile-only in 2017
3.6b unique smartphone users (47%), global growth≈0%
<2b Android, <1b Chinese Android, 0.9b iPhones
2018 sales (units): 🥇Samsung, 🥈Apple, 🥉Huawei
by MAU: 26% Samsung, 24% Apple, 8% Huawei Xiaomi’s footprint
6.7b w/ electric power (87%), less than 1b to go! 📈

5.5b TV users (71%)
3.2b w/ access to working toilets (42%) Go Bill Go
1.5b cars (19%), of which EVs=0.4%
car ownership is rising, not declining 📈
1.3b PCs (16%) = 1.1b Windows, 0.2b Mac + Linux
47% of new PC sales (2018 Q4) = Lenovo + HP
0.4b tablets (4.9%)
160m smart speakers (2.1%), 40% of USA households
outpacing adoption rates of smartphones
127m smart watches (1.7%), 16% of USA adults own one

THE NEW U. N. (pop≈MAU)

“No nation imagines itself
coterminous with mankind.” -Benedict Anderson (1983)
read
Security Council’s permanent members: 🗺️
2.3b Facebook (30%)
2.3b Christianity (30%)
1.8b Islam (23%)
1.5b WhatsApp (20%)
1.4b China (18%)
Security Council’s non-permanent members:
1.4b India (18%)
1.1b Hinduism (14%)
1.1b WeChat (14%)
1.0b Instagram (13%)
805m QQ (11%)
510m European Union (6.6%)
500m TikTok (6.5%)
460m Sina Weibo (6.0%)
330m USA (4.3%)
320m Twitter (4.2%)
Not represented in the General Assembly:
1.2b non-religious (15%), aka “humanists” 📈
1.1b people with no legal identification (14%)

THE INTERNET

“On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.” -Peter Steiner (1993)
4.4b active internet users (57% of world pop, growth is slowing)
4.0b active *mobile* internet users (91% of internet users)
37% of all mobile internet traffic = YouTube
3 separate *mobile* internets: 🇨🇳=820m 🇺🇸=230m 🇪🇺=220m index
🇮🇳=610m choose b/w: govt surveilled, corp custodians, data protected
donations to TOR (open-source anonymity network) hit new record 📈
USA agg. sites by MAU: 250m Google, 215m Facebook, 210m Verizon
Wordpress powers >30% of the *entire* internet
vs web porn traffic claims of 5% to 15%
3.9b email users (90%), 3.5b active social media users (81%) report
5G rollout in USA: AT&T=12 cities (nationwide→2020), Verizon=5 📝

>60% LTE coverage: 700+ commercial networks in 208 countries opensource by Facebook?
SpaceX’s Starlink plans global internet coverage via satellites
7k FCC authorized, 4k deployed by Q1, 12k constellation by 2025
Blue Origin to launch 300 satellite constellation w/ Telesat
OneWeb launches 6 of its 650-unit constellation
~1% of internet data on surface web (indexed by search engines)
~99% on deep web (not indexed), fastest growing data
dark web: 100% anonymous, very small
$10 for a SSN, $20k to hire a hitman, $100k if target is VIP

CLOUD COMPUTING

“Computing Big Bangs = cloud (AWS, 2006) +
consumer mobile (iPhone, 2007).” -Mary Meeker (2018)

people/businesses continue relentless “march to the cloud”
30% of total IT budgets (2018) → cloud = SaaS +IaaS + PaaS report
91% of compute instances on *cloud* data centers vs 9% traditional
$690b cloud market cap, on track to $1 trillion watch slides
if byte of data = 1 grain of rice, then:
kB ≈ 1 cup, MB ≈ 8 bags, GB ≈ 3 shipping container lorries
$0.05 cost of 1m transistors (2013), vs $527 in 1990
iPhone 6 CPU transistors = 625x 1995 Pentium
$0.09 cost per instance on AWS (2018), vs $0.4 in 2008
$0.028/GB cost of cloud storage (2017), vs $569/GB in 1990
world’s most powerful supercomputer: IBM-built “Summit”
USA regains title after years of Chinese dominance
ubiquitous 1TB: SD Card (Lexar), microSD card (SanDisk and Micron) in stock in stock
SSD: Nimbus Data 100TB ExaDrive DC100 SSD → 20k HD movies
Google Drive: 1b MAU, 5m enterprise customers
Dropbox: 500m users (13m paying), $8.9b mkt cap
fastest SaaS company to $1b/yr recurring revenues (🏁=8.3 yrs)
integration with Google G Suite (50% have a G Suite account)
Box: 64m users (12.1m paying), $2.8b mkt cap
Amazon’s AWS to build “factory” cloud for VW

THE BLOCKCHAIN (aka DISTRIBUTED LEDGER TECH)

“Bitcoin is the real Occupy Wall Street.” -Julian Assange (2017)
$144b network value of all 2.2k altcoins/tokens read
15 crypto-assets w/ network value > $1b
1 BTC > 3.2x Gold oz, bitcoin overtook gold in Mar-2017
10yrs old BTC: 17.7m+ circulating (84%), 3.4m to mine ($4.1k+ ea!) btc biz plan
Coinbase: 20m users, in 35+ countries, adds PayPal integration
payment plugin for WordPress’s WooCommerce → ¼ e-commerce sites
bitcoin’s “electricity-hungry” consumption ≈ 0.24% world ≈ 🇧🇩 report
anonymous/decentralized trust enabled by blockchains → expensive
security of blockchain is linear to expenditure in mining power
vs door lock increases house security by more than cost of the lock
51% attack cost: $8b in hardware, $5m+/day in electricity consumption
DLT applicant+patent holders: 🥇IBM=220 🥈Mastercard=140 🥉Sony=80 📊

top govt adoption: 🇸🇪 property registrar, 🇨🇦 grants, 🇪🇪 digital ID, 🇺🇸
Delaware: mandatory shareholder’s list → OK on a blockchain
Nebraska: bill LB 695 → smart contracts are enforceable
Ohio: businesses state taxes → pay w/ bitcoin @ ohiocrypto.com
HSBC settles $250b FX trades using blockchain-based tech
JPMorgan launches JPM Coin to instantly settle payments bulls vs bears
J Baer, Fidelity, Nasdaq, ICE: enable clients to access crypto assets
Yale, Harvard, et al endowments investing in crypto-focused funds

MACHINE LEARNING (aka AI)

“The highest forms of understanding we can achieve
are laughter and human compassion.” -Richard Feynman (1988)
follow
cpu power for AI training: 2x every 3.5mo, vs 18mo for Moore’s Law must watch
co designing custom chips for deep learning acceleration report
reading comp w/unanswerable questions: human performance = 86.831
🥇HIT+iFLYTEK🇨🇳=87.14 🥈TD Bank🇨🇦=86.73 🥉Google AI🇺🇸=86.67 📰
MS Excel’s new feat: insert data from picture into spreadsheet
AlphaZero becomes world’s best Chess, Go, and Shogi player
starts from blank slate, no historical data, except game rules
AlphaStar defeats pro players in “StarCraft II”, 10-1 📰
proliferation of privately owned and profit-driven surveillance DBs
FBI’s facial recognition database includes 50% of USA adult pop
ICE contract w/ Vigilant Solutions: access 5b license plate DB report
“American AI Initiative” federal agencies to prioritize AI investments executive order
200m surveillance CCTV deployed by Chinese govt, 600m → 2020 China’s Gestapo
combinations of ingredients to form metallic glass
scientists found 6k in 50yrs, vs ML → 20k in 1yr
computer generated people, refresh to get a new one each time click+refresh
fake porn videos, ML maps celebrity faces onto performers’ bodies
medical research/knowledge: 2x every 3.5yrs (2010), vs 50yrs in 1950
identifying skin cancer: AI = 95% accuracy > panel of doctors = 87%
breast cancer: LYmph Node Assistant algo achieves 99.6% accuracy

ROBOTS

“Drones will be as ubiquitous as sprinklers.” -Chris Anderson (2017) follow
2.1m industrial robots 2017, installed base growing 15% YoY
robots per 10k employee: 🥇🇰🇷=710 🥈🇸🇬=658 🥉🇩🇪=332…🌎=85
100k warehouse robots “employed” by Amazon, 2:5 warehouse employees
Waymo to sell in-house developed LiDAR “Laser Bear Honeycomb” 📰

$4k for Puck VLP-16, Velodyne’s cheapest LiDAR
Caltech world’s fastest camera, 1012 fps captures traveling light
Boston Dynamic: Atlas’s does backflip, Handle’s stacks boxes
soon for sale: $1m < price < $2m
Chinese drones rule the sky, DJI has ~70% mkt sh Japanese fish rule the aquarium
$399 for Spark: its cheapest HD-video drone
1.1m hobbyist drone fleet (USA, 2017), 870k registered owner-hobbyists
110k+ commercial drone fleet (USA, 2017), 75k certified pilots
60+ carmakers issued autonomous vehicle testing permits by CA DMV
SD-division FTE: Waymo=0.85k, Uber=1.1k, Cruise=1k+ (1k new openings) apply!
disengagement per 1,000 km: 🥇Waymo=0.06 🥈Cruise=0.12 🥉Zoox=0.31 📰
Waymo: approved to test on public roads w/o safety driver present
Anthony Levandosky travels SF→NY on autonomous Prius if you’re going to try, go all the way
SD-airplane Zipline: 128km/h speed, 160km range, 1.75kg cargo capacity
<20% of Earth’s seafloor mapped (100% goal → 2030)
Saildrone charges $2.5k/day/drone to collect ocean data

CLEAN ENERGY

“You don’t need a weatherman
to know which way the wind blows.” -Bob Dylan (1965)

0.0249$/kWh record-low solar energy contract, -100x since 1976
learning rate: cost falls 29% for every doubling in capacity 📉
new capacity global since 2012: renewable > fossil fuel. 84% in 2018
1TW of solar + wind gx capacity installed, 2nd TW to cost <50%
USA coal power plants: closed > open. 25% of open → closed by 2025 📈
42% of global coal capacity is operating on unprofitable margins
10% of global energy consumption = renewable
Costa Rica’s *electricity* grid, new record: 300 days renewable only
China’s 2018 new battery-storage capacity > Σ previous yrs
from gigafactories (60% production mkt sh) to ‘gigacities’
cumulative installed solar photovoltaic capacity (2018)
🥇China=174GW 🥈USA=64GW 🥉Japan=56GW
USA: #2 source of new capacity additions in 2018 (#1 Natural Gas)
cumulative installed wind energy capacity (2018)
🥇China=221GW 🥈USA=96GW 🥉Germany=60GW
USA states wind + solar gx: 🥇ND=54% 🥈KS=47% 🥉OK=43.4%
transition to renewable energy is fully underway: 18 states @ >10% 📊
fastest-growing USA jobs: solar panel installers, wind turbine techs
CA: carbon-free electricity by 2045, utilities → 60% by 2030
solar panel on all new homes, starting 2020 Americans…

ELECTRIC VEHICLES (aka SMART CARS)

“Mr. Musk—who is 45 years old, the same age as Mr. Ford was in 1908
when he released the Model T.” -WSJ (2017)

5.6m EVs currently on the road, plus 0.5m e-buses watch
EV fleet: 🥇🇨🇳=2.6m 🥈🇪🇺=1.2m 🥉🇺🇸=1.1m
2018: China sold 1.3m EVs = 3.6x USA (0.35m)
EVs to public charging st: 🇨🇳=8:1 🇪🇺=8:1 🇺🇸=16:1 (29:1 in 2017)
Google Maps ‘EV charging stations’ displays nearby locations
UK: gas st, new homes, new street lighting columns → “must add”
ChargePoint plans 2.5m charging points by 2025, up from 53k
$176/kWh avg Lithium-ion battery pack price, down 85% since 2010 📉
good analysis
automaker’s battery expertise: outsourcing → in-house
top 10 economies ban non-EV cars “announcements”
by 2025: 🇮🇳 by 2030: 🇧🇷 🇮🇹 by 2040: 🇨🇳 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 by 20😴: 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇨🇦
California: $7k subsidy to purchases of new clean cars
8% of vehicles sales in 2018 = electric vs Norway = 50% 📈
all public transit routes electric by 2040, EV-only purchases by 2029
400k+ Nissan Leaf sold to date: best-selling highway-capable EV starts at $30k
2018 sales: 146k Tesla Model 3 vs 87k Nissan Leaf
full EV lineup: Volvo (2019), Peugeot (2019), MBenz (2022), VW (2030)
Porsche: $8b by 2020 to electrify *entire* lineup, drops diesel
VW: $50b e-plan, EV-only plant in China → the [Chinese] people’s car
car dealers, brace for a lot of pain: EV car maintenance 25-50% less

CREATIVE CAPITAL

“No part of the GDP is immune to innovation.” -Vinod Khosla (2019) follow watch both
USA: 5.9m biz (1-499 FTE), 19.5k co (500+ FTE), 6.6k publicly listed co
52% of Fortune 500 companies in 2000 → not Fortune 500 anymore
S&P 500 lifespan continues to shrink: 12yrs average 📰
S&P500 mkt cap: Σ top 5 ≈ 14% ≈ Σ bottom 260 📈

S&P500 constituents cash position: 2x in 10yrs
top 5 co by mkt cap: hq=USA, exchange=USA, comp adv=tech/investments 📊

$160b investments by top 10 USA/China tech firms: 3x in 5yrs
40% = intangible assets, 30% = physical plant, 30% = deals
2011-17 USA company fundraising: private mkt > public mkt it started as a blog
Softbank’s $100b vision fund: 3 HQs, 80 professionals, $100m min check 📰

$115b by USA VCs (2018) across 5.9k deals, 1st time >$100b since .com pretty good
new records: firms raised 1B+ funds & number of >$100m funds
8 states w/ $b+ VC ecosystem: 🥇CA=$69b 🥈NY=$13b 🥉MA=$11b history lesson
blockchain’s killer app: $17b via ICOs, vs $3.4b by USA seed stage VCs mission of the SEC is to protect investors
NVCA→SEC re non-qualifying investments: allow crypto + secondaries
$45b issued in P2P loans via LendingClub, 3.6m borrowers
$5.0b raised by social fundraising platform GoFundMe, 50m donors 📰

$4.2b pledged to Kickstarter projects globally, 160k+ funded projects
$1.8b awarded in grants through main federal agencies, 4k awards
$0.3b paid to 100k creators using Patreon

SKILLS (aka HUMAN CAPITAL)

“Nobody owes you a career. Manage your career
so that you do not become a casualty.” -Andy Grove (1983)

learn to sell, learn to build. If you can do both → unstoppable
0% = *required* sales courses @ Harvard/Stanford MBA
100% = companies’ sales that comes from sales skills
30% of K-12 students in USA have a code.org account annual report
25% of adults *unable* to use a computer (1.4b people), vs 1b+ illiterate
25% of Goldman Sachs’ workforce (~10k) → computer engineers
MIT: $1b to integrate computing + AI studies to all fields of study 📈
HBX rebrands to Harvard Business School Online, online=mainstream
AI-based + blockchain: LinkedIn’s fastest-growing skills 📰

AI PhDs avg comp $400k/yr vs blockchain dev $120k/yr show me the money
Δ between engineering output = so high → best engineers = underpaid 📈

if no price Δ between best and avg worker → occupation will disappear
6m+ USA jobs risk “degree inflation”: bachelor’s degree ≈ skills
50% of Apple’s US employment 2018: people w/o 4yr degree
$26k for MS cpu/info tech from UPenn (full online via Coursera)
60m freelancers in USA (35% of USA workers) vs 3.6m cashier jobs the value of signal
WeWork: #1 tenant in NYC, app → 400k members can offer skills
Medium.com: 7.5% of writers >$100, $4k+ best story, $10k+ best writer
Tips: $0.7b/yr Lyft drivers vs $0.6b/yr Uber drivers
USA labor mkt: 1m more job openings than unemployed people

CHINA

“The American dream is alive. In China.” -NYTimes (2018)
“9-9-6” schedule of Chinese tech employee: 9am-9pm, 6 day/wk
Silicon Valley (10x innovation) terrified of China (20x), Europe (1x) 🇪🇺=⚰️
China R&D spending growing 18%/yr vs USA at 4%/yr 📰
USA semiconductor companies “holding the fort” → ⏳?
espionage/cyberattacks stealing USA military+academic+economic secrets 📰

Huawei disguises suppliers to get Apple+Cisco+Motorola trade secrets
DoJ accuses China’s Ministry of State Security of directing spies
USTR findings: acts+policies+practices for tech transfer USA → China report
$140b VC investments in 2018 ≈ 40% of global VC (up from 5% in 2008) report
largest annual total seen in any country
#1 unicorn: Ant Financial $150b (China) > 1.5x Uber $90b (USA)
300+ unicorns global: USA=151, China=85. Decacorns: USA=12, China=5
37 Chinese IPOs in USA stock exchanges in 2018
Shanghai Stock Exchange to give cos a Nasdaq-style listing alternative
China cuts restrictions, allows foreign majority ownership (some biz) censorship
automakers (Tesla, BMW, Ford) must give EV location data to govt 📰

Chinese government to pork industry: embrace the “ABCD”
Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain Tech, Cloud Computing, Big Data
WeChat = the OS for the entire Chinese economy
China ’09 → #1 Exporter, ’13 → #1 Trader, ’17 → #1 Shipping+Ports

history lesson from 1901…wake up USA!
“The most serious aspect of the American industrial invasion
lies in the fact that these incomers have acquired control of almost every
new industry created during the past fifteen years…What are the chief
new features in London life? They are, I take it, the telephone, the
portable camera, the phonograph, the electric street car, the automobile,
the type-writer, passenger lifts in houses, and the multiplication of
machine tools. In every one of these, save the petroleum automobiles,
the American maker is supreme; in several he is the monopolist.”

-Frederick Arthur Mackenzie (1901) must read also must read, fascinating

2. WINNER TAKES ALL & HOARDING download 1-pager

“You call it monopoly,
I call it enterprise.” -John D. Rockefeller (1911) watch episodes

MICROSOFT (mkt cap $904b)

“Here comes the sun (doo doo doo doo).” -George Harrison (1969) 📰
Windows + Office = the legacy business
88% mkt sh in desktop operating system
1.5b/day Windows devices (installed base), 800m on Windows 10 alone
1.2b/day Office users, largest productivity service available
168m/mo active users (commercial + consumer licenses = 1 time pay)
33m Office 365 consumer subs (cloud version = recurring rev)
Office 365 > 2x G Suite’s penetration in businesses must read
400m Outlook users (100m mobile), 300m Skype users
$26b+ for LinkedIn (2016): 610m profiles, 2 new members per second
$7.5b for GitHub (2018): outbidding Google, Amazon, Tencent, Atlassian
Cloud + AI platform = new engine of innovation
15% mkt sh (½ AWS, 2x Google) in cloud computing infra w/ Azure
building Walmart’s “cloud factory”
Azure *premium*: 15 consecutive qtrs growing on avg at triple digits 📈
Cortana to be replaced by Microsoft Search
Word’s Resume Assistant (powered by LinkedIn) writes your resume
real-time translator: power point (60 langs), Skype (10 langs)
$16b spent in R&D (2018 calendar year)
samples cashier-less technology to Walmart and other retailers
155m Minecraft copies sold, 65m/mo Xbox Live users

APPLE (mkt cap $896b)

“Just the way he advertised:
Jesus, Gandhi, Me!” -Bill Burr (2012)

$245b cash on balance sheet > Czech Republic’s GDP
2.5b devices sold, 1.4b active (0.9m = iPhones), 360m paid subs
64% of Americans own an Apple product
iPhone: most successful product of all times
1.5b+ cumulative iPhones sold since launch (Q2 2007)
vs 400m Sony Walkman, 130m Nokia 3310
installed base grows at 206k/day vs 225k/day pop growth
86% of USA teens: next phone → iPhone, #1 signal of USA wealth 📊
iPhone defies economic gravity, raising prices
$800 avg selling price, vs $345+ for rest of industry
Apple Watch alone → Fortune 300 company, 50% smart watch mkt sh 📰

21m sold in ’18 (12% YoY) vs 24m Σ Swiss watchmakers (-2% YoY) 📈
Google’s #1 dx channel: $12b/yr default search engine on iOS devices
AirPods → fastest growing product, 20m sold, 40m in 2019E 📈

iPad = 89% of tablets >$200 in USA, 29% global mkt sh (sales 2018)
0.3b Apple Pay users. Apple Card (GSachs+MCard) → iOS Wallet
90m Apple News readers. Apple News+ = 300 publications @ $10/mo
$15b in R&D in 2018
500m Siri users, 180+ open positions
Project Titan: 72 SD-cars, 144 drivers → #3 fleet in CA

AMAZON (mkt cap $875b) $AMZN v $AAPL

“If Amazon is in your line of business: Sell now. If Amazon is not in
your line of business: Sell now; your business sucks.” -@GSElevator (2017)
follow
#1 company by R&D spending: $29b in 2018, vs $23b in 2017
100m+ Amazon prime members (> Costco’s): $1.4k/yr member spending
vs $1k/yr by Amazon customer, vs $1.7k/yr by Echo owner
Americans w/ Prime > go to church or own a landline
#1 online retailer USA: 45% mkt sh, 5% of *all* USA retail
#2 online grocery USA: 31% mkt sh vs Walmart=33%
#1 ebook seller USA: 83% mkt sh
audible.com (owned by Amazon) profitability > Σ top 5 NYC publishers
#1 cloud infrastructure provider: AWS=35% mkt sh
$26b in rev > Σ cloud (MSFT+GOOG+IBM+BABA)
#1 voice-powered speaker in USA: 64% mkt sh
100m Echo’s sold, 1k/s Echo Dot on CyberMonday, 10k working on Alexa
#1 fulfillment co: 50 Amazon Air planes, 6k trailers, 20k Mercedes vans
building Amazon air traffic mgmt system (plane+drone deliveries) 📰
#2 largest private employer in USA by FTE (#1 Walmart)
cashier-less Amazon Go stores → 3k by 2021: SEA=4 CHI=4 SFO=3 NYC=… 📰
avg Go store: $1.5m/yr ≈ 150% convenience store w/ cashiers
50% units sold: 3rd-party. Amazon SKUs=600m vs 120k Walmart, 4k Costco the new CPI
#3 in ads (6% mkt sh): $2b/qtr business (heads-up Google/Facebook)
2/3 of *product* searches start/end on amazon.com vs 20% Google

ALPHABET (mkt cap $816b)

“Google searches are the most important dataset ever collected
on the human psyche.” -Seth Stephens-Davidowitz (2017)
must read
8 products with 1b+ MAU each 📝 📝
Search, Android, Maps, Chrome, YouTube, Google Play, Gmail, Drive
80% mkt sh in online search (desktop+mobile)
Google Flights USA mkt sh 25% (9% in 2017), vs Kayak at 26%
Android overtook Windows as the *internet* most used OS (Nov-2017)
launched in nov-2007, now 38%+ mkt sh, 3b active Android devices
$40m acquisition of watchmaker Fossil to boost Wear OS
2b Chrome installs in active use
#1 browser across all devices (60%+ mkt sh), vs Safari (#2, ~15%)
2b MAU on YouTube, 1b videos captioned in 10 languages
channels w/ 1m subs = 2x 2017, creators earning 5-6 figures up 40%
1b Google Drive users, 5m enterprise customers on G Suite
1b devices with Google Assistant
23m Google Home smart speakers sold in 2018, behind Echo=24m
leading employer of AI talent
13% ICML papers → Google/DeepMind author, up from 6.3% in 2017
Waymo’s fleet > 16m+ self-driving kms on public roads, vs Uber 6m+
logged more kms than all other competitors
$21b+ spent in R&D in 2018 📰

$21m in lobby expenditure, #1 tech company (#2 in USA)

FACEBOOK (mkt cap $476b)

“If you’re offered a seat on a rocket ship,
don’t ask what seat! Just get on.” -Sheryl Sandberg (2012)

2.7b/mo used at least one Facebook-family apps
#1 mobile platform by marketer’s budget spent, ahead of Google 📰
65%+ mobile social traffic, 22% digital ad revenue
90m biz profiles, 7m/mo active advertisers, 100b/day messages
federal lawsuit: can’t target housing ads by age/gender/zipcode/racial HUD vs Facebook Inc
Facebook: 2.3b MAU, 1.5b DAU
Messenger: 1.3b MAU with 500 FTE, 10b/mo biz-ppl messages
goal: never dial a 1-800 number again
56% of people rather message than call customer service
400m/mo call/video chat, 20m businesses, 300k/mo bots
WhatsApp: 1.5b MAU with 250 FTE, 65b/day messages
begins verifying biz accounts (green badge on profiles)
click-to-chat button on website → message a business
Business API → biz respond using WhatsApp (Uber✔️)
Instagram: 1b MAU with 700 FTE, 500m/day stories 📰

25m biz-specific profiles, 2m/mo active advertisers
Checkout on Instagram: new merchant tool to buy directly in-app
rolling out with 20 brands incl Nike, Burberry, Warby Parker
$10b R&D in 2018, vs $8b in 2017
~60 people working at Facebook’s blockchain/payment group

TENCENT (mkt cap 438b)

“Ideas are not important in China –execution is.” – Pony Ma (2011) watch
largest games company in the world, $19b in revenues (2018) report
#1 by users (China): League of Legends (PC) + Honor of Kings (mobile)
#1 smartphone community (China): 1.1b MAU on Weixin & WeChat
200m DAU of 1m lightweight apps that run inside WeChat
WeChat app ecosystem = 50% Apple App Store (2.1m apps)
#1 mobile payment platform (China): 0.9b MAU, 1b/day tx
100m users on wealth mgmt platform LiCaiTong (invest excess cash)
800m MAU on QQ (short+mini videos), 532m MAU Qzone (blogs)
100m digital content subs, 50% YoY complete service offerings
TencentVideo @ 89m subs, #2 iOS video app by rev (60% of Netflix)
#1 news services by MAU, #1 online content library/publishing
#1 music services platform: TME >50% mkt sh of China’s music streaming
active investment portfolio of 700 co: 120+ unicorns, 60+ IPOs
acquired Supercell for $8.6b, leads latest round into Reddit
$4.5b → DiDi, $1.8b → Tesla, $1.4b → Flipkart
combined mkt cap of companies where Tencent owns >5% → $500b
owns 12% of investment bank China International Capital (CICC)
$3b in R&D (2018)
cloud infra revenues 2x in 2018, reach $1.3b
post ZTE block → “support China’s chip industry w/ semiconductor R&D”

TESLA (mkt cap $49b)

“Musk has made every Tesla customer
a venture capitalist.” -Steve LeVine (2016)

most valuable USA car makers: GM >≈ Tesla = 1.4x Ford
Tesla’s FTEs = 21% Ford, = 23% GM
best car ownership experience on the planet
buy online + over-the-air *software* updates
models S,3,X awarded perfect 5-star safety rating by NHTSA 📊
autopilot w/ “summon”, sentry-mode, dog-mode, panoramic glass roof sorry city meter
245k vehicles delivered in 2018, 2.5x 2017
fraud rumors re production+demand #s, federal judge dismissed lawsuit skeptics should never be silenced
Shanghai plant, 1m/yr production target by 2020
Model S @ $85k, WR longest-range any EV >500km, #1 by mkt sh 📊 🏁

faster than Ferrari/Lamborghini, 0-60mph in 2.5s
Model 3 @ $35k, safest car ever tested by NHTSA 📰

0-60mph in 3.2s, 260km/h top speed, 490km range
#1 best-selling passenger vehicle in CA (2H 2018) 📊
Model X @ $89k, WR longest-range electric SUV >470km, #2 by mkt sh 📊
Model Y (2020E) @ $47k, pre-order now
Roadster 2G, to be quickest production car ever: 0-60mph in 1.9s
reservations at $50k, ‘Founder Series’ → $250k *upfront*
$1.5b R&D in 2018: ~1k Semi truck reservations (starts at $150k)
VW’s EV charging network to install Tesla’s Powerpacks batteries

ORGANIZATION HOARDING

“The banks took the money the American people gave them,
and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses
and lobby the Congress to kill big reform.” -The Big Short (2016)
read watch
Pension funds ($3,509b)
$1,444b 🇯🇵 Government Pension Investment Fund
$583b 🇰🇷 National Pension Service of Korea
$531b 🇺🇸 Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board
$495b 🇳🇱 National Civil Pension Fund Netherlands
$456b 🇨🇳 National Social Security
Corporate ($582b): cash+ST+LT investments
$245b Apple
$130b Microsoft
$109b Alphabet
$99b Samsung
$57b China Mobile
Robo-advisors ($184b) a classic, never forget
$115b Vanguard PAS
$33b Schwab Intelligent
$16b Betterment
$11b Wealthfront for immediate release
$9b Personal Capital
Private vehicles ($176b): (strategy)
$99b Softbank Vision Fund (PE)
$20b Blackstone IX (RE)
$20b Brookfield Infrastructure Fund IV (Infra)
$20b Global Infrastructure Partners IV (RN)
$13b GS Mezzanine Partners VII (PD)
University endowments ($154b): 📝 congressional letter 104 @ $1b
$39b Harvard
$33b UTexas
$29b Yale
$27b Stanford
$26b Princeton
Foundations ($130b): non-profit survey
$52b Bill & Melinda Gates
$31b Wellcome Trust
$20b H. Hughes Medical Institute
$14b Ford Foundation
$13b Garfield Weston

history lesson: cash that’s off the books can disappear
religion in USA: 100% tax exempt, no obligation to keep books
#1 recipient: $127b in 2017 alone must read, religions → pg 54
$16b/yr = run rate of the Black American Church mmm
$6b portfolio = Trinity Church’s RE arm 📰
“reserve” funds of other religious orgs …highly obscure data
$32b Church of LDS (Mormon)
$21b The United Methodist Church
$13b Southern Baptist Convention
good investors look for inconsistencies

INDIVIDUALS HOARDING

“There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgement
as to see a friend get rich.” -Charles Kindleberger (1978)

Athletes ($578m): ex-endorsements
$275m Floyd Mayweather 🥊
$85m Conor McGregor 🥋
$85m Neymar ⚽
$73m Lionel Messi ⚽
$61m Cristiano Ronaldo ⚽
Actors ($554m): not only movies
$239m George Clooney (58yrs)
$124m Dwayne Johnson (47yrs)
$81m Robert Downey Jr (54yrs)
$65m Chris Hemsworth (35yrs)
$46m Jackie Chan (65yrs)
Musicians ($450m): not only touring
$110m Ed Sheeran 🇬🇧
$100m Bruno Mars 🇺🇸
$83m Katy Perry 🇺🇸
$80m Taylor Swift 🇺🇸
$77m Jay-Z 🇺🇸
CEO ($310m): salary+bonus+stock/options 📰

$129m D. Zaslav – NASDAQ:DISCA
$66m R. Iger – NYSE:DIS
$45m R. Handler – NYSE:JEF
$42m S. MacMillan – NASDAQ:HOLX
$29m R. Stephenson – NYSE:T
Supermodels ($69m)
$23m Kendall Jenner (23yrs)
$13m Karlie Kloss (26yrs)
$12m Chrissy Teigen (33yrs)
$12m Rosie Huntington-W (32yrs)
$10m Cara Delevigne (26yrs)
Billionaires ($459b): TGP=The Giving Pledge
$115b Jeff Bezos 📰
$102b Bill Gates – TGP
$87b Bernard Arnault
$84b Warren Buffet – TGP
$70b Mark Zuckerberg – TGP

SOVEREIGN HOARDING

“The rules!” shouted Ralph, “you’re breaking the rules!”
“Who cares?” -Lord of the Flies (1954)

GDP ($46t): 2018, current prices
$20.5t 🇺🇸 USA
$13.4t 🇨🇳 China 📰
$5.0t 🇯🇵 Japan
$4.0t 🇩🇪 Germany
$2.8t 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Military power: 0=perfect score
0.0615 🇺🇸 USA
0.0639 🇷🇺 Russia
0.0673 🇨🇳 China the dragon awakens
0.1065 🇮🇳 India
0.1584 🇫🇷 France
Fiat currencies: avg daily trading (Forex trading)
$4.5t (90%) 🇺🇸 dollar 📰
$1.5t (31%) 🇪🇺 euro
$1.0t (21%) 🇯🇵 yen
$0.7t (12%) 🇬🇧 pound sterling
$0.4t (7%) 🇦🇺 dollar
SWF ($3,710b): non-pension, “rainy days” + “future gen” read
$972b 🇳🇴 Norway “Oil Fund” SWF 📰
$941b 🇨🇳 China Investment Corporation
$696b 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
$592b 🇰🇼 Kuwait Invest Authority
$509b 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio
Rich individuals (105k): net worth > $30m
47k 🇺🇸 USA
18k 🇯🇵 Japan
14k 🇩🇪 Germany
13k 🇨🇳 China + Hong Kong
13k 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Gold reserves ($846b): tonnes in central banks at $1,293/oz
$371b 🇺🇸 USA
$153b 🇩🇪 Germany
$122b 🇮🇹 Italy
$111b 🇫🇷 France
$98b 🇷🇺 Russia

3. DISRUPTING THE INCUMBENTS

watch

“The battle between every startup and incumbent
comes down to whether the startup gets distribution
before the incumbent gets innovation.” -Alex Rampell (2015) follow

DATING

“So, I asked him: What did you search?
And he goes: Jewish and my zip code!” -Aziz Ansari (2015)
follow watch read
200m/mo use digital dating services pre app era
15%+ of top 20 apps by iOS revenue: dating
#1 place (USA) where singles met their last first date: app
55% of singles have created a dating profile
45% of singles have dated someone they met online
Match Group owns top brands: 8m+ paid members total
Tinder, Match.com, Plenty of Fish, Pairs
Tinder: 50m active users, 4m paid members
#2 (non-game) app by consumer spend 2018 (AppStore+GooglePlay)
vs #1 Netflix → “Netflix and Chill?”
Rimberg Intl (Badoo, Bumble, Chappy) considering IPO
60m Badoo (w/ 420m registered), 50m on Bumble
Facebook launches dating service in Colombia, global roll-out to come
10m active members on ‘compensated dating’ app Seeking Arrangement
8m sugar babies, 2m sugar daddy/momma when your parents can’t pay for the water polo special admission
1/7 kids ages 12-17 = sent a sext (sex+text), + 4%/yr ea year of age
MindGeek owns 24 .com sites: PorhHub, RedTube, YouPorn… and AgeID
Pornhub (launched 1mo before iPhone): 100m/day visits, 22m reg users
UK’s compulsory age check for porn to use AgeID, starts: April 2019
porn is the biggest development in sexuality research ever 📰

RIDES

“The height of civilization isn’t the poor owning cars
but the rich sharing bikes.” -Horace Dediu (2017)
follow
NYC taxi medallion: from $1.3m (2013) to <$200k in Mar-2019
NYC sets $17.22/hr min wage for ride-hailing drivers 📰
65k ride-hailing drivers vs 13k yellow cabs (50k drivers)
first studies on ride-hailing: car traffic ↑ while bus rides ↓ 🚌
36% USA adults using ride-share services, vs 15% in 2015
Uber: moves more people than Σ airline industry, Uber Air → 2020
IPO @ ~$100b vs $115b = Σ top 7 USA airlines (AA+UA+DL+WN+AS+B6+NK) 📊
15m/day rides, 800+ cities, 65 countries, 3m drivers, 70% USA mkt sh
JUMP Bikes/scooters, post Uber acq JUMP+Uber frequency up 15%
$24b Lyft IPO’s w/ $911m in losses > any co in history S-1 mmm
30% USA mkt sh, 31m riders, 1.9m drivers, 95% USA pop coverage 📈
acq Motivate = 80% USA bike-share → Citibike e-fleet 3x utilization
4m e-bikes in Germany (~10% household) threshold for mass adoption
27 out 40 top USA cities “allow” electric scooters
streets/sidewalk wars: micromobility → fastest tech adoption in history
$2.4b Lime operates e-bikes/scooters in 140 cities, SF appeal = denied lol
Boeing tests VTOL flying taxi prototype, rumored to be for Uber thanks Section 16600
16yrs old SpaceX: 64% mkt sh (rockets launched), cargo + passengers
rockets launched by SpaceX > any company/country 📊
Crew Dragon demo (manned missions for NASA) successful

ASSISTANTS

“Alexa is a revelation for the blind.” -Ian Bogost (2018)
people speak ~150 words/min vs type ~40 words/min
voice speech recognition tech → open source build with Jasper
133m installed (160m by 2019E) smart speakers, 78m shipped (2.2x 2017)
2016-2020E compound growth rate of 48% report
77m/mo use voice assistants in cars (USA), vs 46m/mo on smart speakers 📊
Sherpa.ai claims 5m users (85% Spanish-speaking), working w/ Porsche
Garmin launches car navigation Speak, powered by Alexa
Amazon’s Echo shipped 24.2m in 2018, >100m sold to date 📈
28k Alexa-compatible smart home devices, from 4.5k manufacturers
Apple Music now live on Amazon Echo speakers
Microsoft Cortana integrated w/ Amazon Alexa, works on Xbox One
Google’s Home shipped 23.4m in 2018
10k smart home devices (1.6k brands) can be controlled by Assistant
rolls out Interpreter Mode real-time trans (26 languages)
1b installed Google devices that “allow” voice commands w/ Assistant
Ikea lightbulbs and Bang & Olufsen’s BeoSound enabled by Google
Sonos One G2 compatible w/ Alexa, Siri, G Assistant, starts at $199
Alibaba’s Tmall Genie: 8.9m sold in 2018, starts at $79
Apple’s HomePod: 1.6m sold in Q4 2018, starts at $299
Baidu’s DuerOS: assistant available on 200m devices

COMMUNICATIONS

“😂 word of the year 2015” -Oxford Dictionaries (2015)
text messaging → most used data service in the world must read
20b/day vs WhatsApp=65b/day, WeChat=45b/day
55% of USA households no longer have landlines
Zipwhip text-enables landlines, serves 3.3m numbers across 20k biz
2m+ developers on Twilio’s cloud communication API
WhatsApp powered by Twilio API, 7% of Twilio’s 2018 rev
migration to VoIP deadline: 🇨🇭’19 🇳🇿’22 🇩🇪’22 🇬🇧’25 🇫🇷’30
2.8k Unicode approved emojis v 470k entries in Merrian-Webster
😂 most-used emoji on Twitter, 2.1x more than ❤️
top langs for web content: 🥇English>50% 🥈Russian=6% 🥉 German<6%
NSA collected metadata on 530m phone calls in 2017, 3.5x 2016
FCC proposal to carriers “track 911 caller’s locations ~3 meters” 📰
open source Signal Protocol powers the encryption of:
Facebook’s WhatsApp, Microsoft’s Skype, Google’s Allo
Slack (2019 IPO → $13b): 10m DAU, 3m paying users, 85k paying co 📊 📢
~3t photos taken on film ever, 1t by iPhone users (2017)
most pictured: #1 scenery, #2 information I need to remember
Zoom $8b IPO, underdog founders, oversaturated/unsexy videoconf mkt S-1
90m/mo (60m/week) Americans listen to podcasts 📝
52% Apple’s USA mkt sh (19% Spotify), 610k shows, 4.3m episodes

FRAUD (ADS=PROPAGANDA)

“Fraud is not a trade secret.” -Tyler Shultz (2016)
$200b+ USA ad industry vs $170b+ Google/Facebook duopoly 📰
USA b/d: 50%+ digital, 34% mobile
WhatsApp confirms it will put ads within is Status feature
$80b spent on the lottery (USA 2018), $307/yr/adult
50%+ of USA women >25yrs → dye their hair, 7% in 1956
40% of those → blonde. Naturally genetic blonde rate: ~2%
height increasing insoles slogan “Life’s Short, You Don’t Have To Be!” he’s so tall…
40% of internet traffic → “non-human” signals, 55% of emails = SPAM
9% of digital ad fraud → India: agencies using bots + fake users
47% of internet users globally use ad-blockers
120m active devices use Adblock Plus
DuckDuckGo now claims 40m/day searches, 2x from Q1-2018
10yrs old privacy-focused search engine and profitable 📝
2.2b stolen emails/passwords on the black market
$20k on dark web = 617m names/emails/passwords from a websites/apps
50% of calls you receive = SPAM
FBI: 25% victims respond by wiring money to fraudsters
two types of orgs: been hacked, don’t yet know they’ve been hacked
$5.3b in VC funding of cybersecurity co (USA 2018), 20% from 2017
Adobe developing img manipulation detection → spot photoshopped report

PAYMENTS (CREDIT’S CUST ACQ COST)

“This is a Trojan horse of epic proportions.
And the US consumer will easily be co-opted.” -Josh Wolfe (2018)
follow
credit/debit cards payments > cash payments
cash tx: 🇸🇪=13% (1st cashless society 2022E) vs 🇺🇸=30% 📆
🇦🇺=27%: -3k UK bank branches in 4yrs, ATMs @ -300/mo report
when cash tx <7% → cost to manage cash > mg profit on that cash sale 📰 hi, can I get some cookies
Visa + Mastercard > 70% mkt sh, get paid ~3%/tx
USA poor: 10% of income = fees+tx costs = spent on food = $140b/yr
1.7b people remain unbanked (17%), untapped mkt!
20% of global smartphone users → phone = wallet
PayPal: 270m accts, 21m merchant, $PYPL mkt cap $120b > $90b Amex
$5b in working capital loans to 150k merchants since 2013
PayPal Checkout conversion = 1.6x other digital wallets 📝
$62b Venmo payments in 2018. Profitable by 2020? 📊
Square: 90m customer profiles, 24k stores, 15m/mo Cash App users
Stripe ($22b valuation): supports credit/debit tx in 32 countries
380m+ Apple Pay users, 65% of retail locations accept Apple Pay (USA) 📊 🤝
Apple feat GSachs: joint credit card paired with new iPhone features
WhatsApp’s user-to-user crypto payments TBA. Telegram+Signal too 📈
China:🥇TenPay(WeChat)=910m 🥈Alipay=740m 🥉Baidu Wallet=130m welcome to Miami
31% of adult pop covered by credit bureaus, PayPal invests in Tala
260m people w/ credit score in Ant Financial, vs 200m with FICO

COMMERCE (aka STORES 2.0)

“World’s largest company by sales (Walmart)
is now the perceived underdog.” -The Economist (2017)

8.8k retail stores closed USA 2018 > 6.2k in 2008. But 12.6k opened
Costco’s simple 40yrs old formula works slides
Kylie Jenner (age=21): fully owns $360m/yr biz, world’s youngest $b
front-office = 132m Instagram followers, back-office → Shopify
Shopify: 0.8m merchants, 175 countries, stock up 1,211% since IPO report
10% of Black Friday sales → Shopify (up from 1% in 2013)
consumer goods’ ARPU: global avg = $0.6k = China
🥇USA=$2.0k 🥈UK=$1.6k 🥉Korea=$1.5k
China: $1.3t online sales, 80% mobile, 25% of retail sales
54x ‘Chin[a][ese]’ mentioned @ Tiffany’s earnings call, 4x YoY
$31b Alibaba’s singles day: $1b→1min 25s, $10b→1hr 1min, 90%=mobile
USA: $0.5t+ online sales, 40% mobile, 15% of retail sales 📈
reminder: Amazon has a low single digit mkt sh of USA retail
$7.9b Cyber Mon (36% mobile), $6.2b Black Fri ($1b w/ PayPal mobile)
$101b spent in global app stores 2018 > Microsoft’s revenues
Apple App Store revenue per download = 4.8x Google Play
$1.2b spent on App Store: Xmas Eve ↔ New Year’s Eve, new record 📰
Walmart same-day grocery delivery partners: Postmates, Deliv, et al e-Walmart mafia
ends w/ Deliv: Walmart couldn’t process orders fast enough
Postmates (~$2b, IPO 2019): 3k cities, 3m/mo orders, $1.2b GMV

TV

“For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain,
there can be no mercy…hunt or be hunted.” -Francis Underwood (2014)

video streaming service subs > cable TV subs globally
2019 original programming budget: $15b Netflix
vs 2018: $5b Amazon, $3b Hulu, $2b HBO, $1b Apple, $1b Facebook
Netflix (Oscars=6): 139m paid subs globally, to raise prices by ~15%
#1 non-game app by revenue, 1st internet-based service to join MPAA
USA: 60m paid subs > 47m subs Σ top 6 cable companies
Netflix compression tech: 3.3x Amazon Prime, 7.0x Apple iTunes
>50% top 50 Netflix shows → owned by rivals launching streaming services
Disney ends Netflix deal → Disney+ Disney/Pixar/Marvel/StarWars/NatGeo 📝
ESPN 85m USA cable TV subs, ESPN+ for $5/mo → 2m paid subs in 1 year in your face [Netflix]
Hulu (Disney=60%): 25m USA subscribers
Amazon (Oscars=3): movie library is 4.5x Netflix, 7.5x Hulu
to release ~30 films in 2019, ~20 will debut on Amazon’s Prime Video
IMDb (Amazon-owned) launches Freedive: free w/ ads streaming service
HBO (ATT-owned): 140m+ global subs, 8m HBO Now subs (USA)
YouTube: TV = fastest-growing market, 300k subs
$50/mo = live news/sports/shows (70 networks), full USA mkts rollout
iQiyi’s “Story of Yanxi Palace” streamed 15b+ times across 70 mkts
Apple TV+ rolling out in May w/ original shows and movies tv+
partners: S Spielberg, Oprah W, Sesame St characters, J Aniston, etc

MUSIC

“We don’t ask you for free iPhones. Please don’t ask us to provide
you with our music for no compensation.” -Taylor Swift (2015)
follow 💪 To Apple, Love Taylor
streaming = 50% industry’s source of revenue they won…in court
$19b global sales 2018, 4yrs of growth, still at 75% of 1999 report report
top 3 labels (Vivendi+Sony+Warner) streaming rev: $7b, >50% of total
~80% per-play payout → labels keep
Spotify: 96m paid subscribers, 205m+ total active
~8% equity swap w/ Tencent Music Entmt. (644m MAU, 27m paying)
$25b Spotify mkt cap vs $30b TME mkt cap
Apple Music: 50m paid subscribers, plus ~5m trial subs
overtakes Spotify in USA paid subs: 28m vs 26m
YouTube Music available in 49 countries, videos/audio/lists all in one
free with ads or $10/mo, $5/mo for students
“Scorpion” by Drake (#1 album of 2018) after 24hrs release
170m streams on Apple Music vs 130m on Spotify
16 YouTube music videos >2.5b views vs 25 Spotify songs >1b streams
“Hello” by Adele: 0→1b YouTube views: 87 days
“Despacito” by Luis Fonsi: #1 music video 6.1b views 📈
“Shape of You” by Ed Sheeran: 0→1b Spotify streams: 153 days
“Shape of You” by Ed Sheeran: #1 streamed songs 2.1b hits
20m+ Amazon Music Unlimited subs, $10/m for Prime members
Winamp returns w/ mobile/desktop app, reached 60m users in 2011 it really whips the llama’s ass!

BONUS

“Facts don’t care about your feelings.” -Ben Shapiro (2016) follow
Brokerage: 6m accts on $0 fee app Robinhood
Cycling: 600k Peloton subscribers cycling from home
Games: 90m+ PlayStation 4 consoles sold by Sony (since 2013)
Grammar: 15m/day checking grammar on Grammarly
Gym: 5.5m Fitness Blender subscribers
Food stamps: Propel manages food benefits of 2.2m Americans
Homework: 150m 12-18 year olds asking questions on Brainly
Locksmith: 2k KeyMe smart-kiosks across USA
Lost & found: 20m Tile trackers sold
Meditation: 1m paying subscribers on Headspace and on Calm
Muslims: 12m/mo pray using Muslim Pro app
News: 3.3m NYT digital-only paying subscribers (> than print) 📈
Neighborhoods: 210k neighborhoods on Nextdoor (90% of USA)
Period: 26m women track their period with Flo app
Pets: 200k vetted dog sitters on Rover
Policy: 285m users petitioning governments on Change.org
Religion: 260k communities on Pray.com
Textbooks: 250k students using online textbooks by Packback
Vaping: e-cigarette maker Juul ($38b valuation) has 75% mkt sh USA new adiction
Video: 500m/mo users of 15s video-sharing app Tik Tok