ReportsStats Q4 2018

“Competing without software is like competing without electricity.”
-Naval Ravikant (2016)

1. DRIVERS OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

“The great lesson in microeconomics is
to discriminate between when technology is going to help
you and when it’s going to kill you.” -Charlie Munger (1994)

MOBILE FIRST (aka SMART PLATFORMS)

“The smartphone is the sun
and everything else orbits it.” -Ben Evans (2015)
follow
7.7b world population. Of them:
5.7b adults → age > 15yrs (74%)
8.0b mobile connections, SIM cards (104%)
5.6b unique mobile phone users (73%)
USA passed 50% of homes being mobile-only in 2017
3.3b unique smartphone users (43%)
1.4b Android, 1.1b Chinese Android, 0.8b iPhones
by MAU: 26% Samsung, 24% Apple
2018 sales: 🥇Samsung, 🥈Huawei, 🥉Apple
6.7b w/ electric power (87%), less than 1b to go! 📈

5.5b TV users (72%)
3.2b w/ access to working toilets (42%) 📰 go Bill go
1.4b cars (19%), of which EVs=0.3%
1.3b PCs (16%), 1.1b Windows, 0.2b Mac + Linux
0.2b tablets (3.0%)
43% of children aged 2-4 own a tablet (USA) vs 59% aged 5-8
24% of USA households own a voice-activated smart speaker
0.1b installed base, 2x 2017
outpacing adoption rates of smartphones (for which growth=0%)
18% of USA adults own a smartwatch

THE NEW U. N. (pop≈MAU)

“No nation imagines itself
coterminous with mankind.” -Benedict Anderson (1983)
read
Security Council’s permanent members: 🗺️
2.3b Christianity (30%) watch: 15:15s → 21:56s
2.2b Facebook (28%)
1.8b Islam (23%)
1.5b WhatsApp (20%)
1.4b China (19%)
Security Council’s non-permanent members:
1.4b India (18%)
1.1b Hinduism (14%)
1.1b WeChat (14%)
1.0b Instagram (13%)
800m QQ (10%)
530m Qzone (6.9%)
510m European Union (6.6%)
445m Sina Weibo (5.8%)
330m USA (4.3%)
325m Twitter (4.2%)
Not represented in the General Assembly:
1.2b non-religious (15%), aka “humanists”? read
1.1b people with no legal identification (14%)

THE INTERNET

“On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.” -Peter Steiner (1993)
4.2b active internet users (54% of world pop, growth is slowing)
3.8b active *mobile* internet users (93% of internet users)
3 separate internets: 🇨🇳=790m 🇪🇺=450m 🇺🇸=230m
🇮🇳=480m → choose: state surveilled, data protected, corp custodians
USA aggregate sites by MAU: 250m Google, 210m Facebook, 205m Oath
Wordpress powers >30% of the *entire* internet
vs web porn traffic claims of 5% to 15%
3.8b email users (93%), 3.4b active social media users (81%)
5G rollout begins, but pop coverage: 5G=0% vs 3G=95%
USA to pioneer: AT&T=12 cities, Verizon=5
LTE>60%, proliferation of unlimited data plans
680 commercial LTE networks deployed in 208 countries report
SpaceX’s Starlink plans global internet coverage via satellites
7k FCC authorized, 4k deployed by Q1, 12k constellation by 2025
~1% of internet data on Surface web (indexed by search engines)
~99% on Deep web (not indexed by search engines)
550x larger than the public internet
fastest growing data on the internet
Dark Web: 100% anonymous, very small 🔗

$10 for a SSN, $20k to hire a hitman, $100k if target is VIP

CLOUD COMPUTING

“Computing Big Bangs = cloud (AWS, 2006) +
consumer mobile (iPhone, 2007).” -Mary Meeker (2018)

2.3b people to use cloud storage by 2020E (30% of world pop)
60% of internet users have used cloud storage
if byte of data = 1 grain of rice, then:
kB ≈ 1 cup, MB ≈ 8 bags, GB ≈ 3 shipping container lorries
$0.05 cost of 1m transistors (2013), vs $527 in 1990
iPhone 6 CPU transistors = 625x 1995 Pentium
$0.09 cost per instance on AWS (2018), vs $0.4 in 2008
$0.028/GB cost of cloud storage (2017), vs $569/GB in 1990
world’s most powerful supercomputer: IBM-built “Summit”
USA regains title after years of Chinese dominance
world’s highest-capacity
microSD card: SanDisk Ultra microSDXC UHS-I → 40hrs full HD video in stock
SSD: Nimbus Data 100TB ExaDrive DC100 SSD → 20k HD movies
people/businesses continue relentless “march to the cloud”
30% of total IT budgets (2018) → cloud = SaaS +IaaS + PaaS
Google Drive: 1b MAU, 4m enterprise customers
Dropbox: 500m users (12.3m paying), $8.3b mkt cap
fastest SaaS company to $1b/yr recurring revenues (🏁=8.3 yrs)
integration with Google G Suite (50% have a G Suite account)
Box: 63m users (12.1m paying), $2.4b mkt cap

THE BLOCKCHAIN (aka DISTRIBUTED LEDGER TECH)

“Bitcoin is the real Occupy Wall Street.” -Julian Assange (2017)
$122b network value of all 2.1k+ altcoins/tokens read
11 crypto-assets w/ network value > $1b
1 BTC > 2.9x Gold oz, bitcoin overtook gold in Mar-2017
10yrs old BTC: 17.5m+ circulating (83%), 3.5m to mine ($3.7k+ ea!) 🎂

Coinbase: 20m users, in 35+ countries, adds PayPal integration
Payment plugin for WordPress’s WooCommerce → ¼ e-commerce sites
$8b latest valuation, up from $1.6b in Aug-2017 DCG mafia
bitcoin’s “energy-hungry” consumption ≈ 0.2% world ≈ 🇸🇬
anonymous/decentralized trust enabled by blockchains → expensive
security of blockchain is linear to expenditure in mining power
vs door lock increases house security by more than cost of the lock
51% attack cost: $7b+ in hardware, $5m+/day in energy consumption
top DLT applicant+patent holders: 🥇IBM=220 🥈Mastercard=140 🥉Sony=80 📊
📊

top govt adoption: 🇸🇪 property registrar, 🇨🇦 grants, 🇪🇪 digital ID, 🇺🇸
Delaware: mandatory shareholder’s list → OK on a blockchain
Nebraska: bill LB 695 → smart contracts are enforceable
Ohio: businesses state taxes → pay w/ bitcoin: ohiocrypto.com
70% of central banks engaged in work on Central Bank Digital Currency slides
Topics on cryptocurrencies/blockchain added to CFA exams
Yale’s endowment invests in 2 funds dedicated to crypto

ROBOTS

“Drones will be as ubiquitous as sprinklers.” -Chris Anderson (2017) follow
2.4m industrial robots, installed base growing 15% YoY
robots per 10k employee: 🥇🇰🇷=710 🥈🇸🇬=658 🥉🇩🇪=332…🌎=85
120k warehouse robots “employed” by Amazon, 2:5 warehouse employees
1.5b iPhones sold (since launched) > Japanese cameras *ever*
$4k for Puck VLP-16, Velodyne’s cheapest LiDAR
Caltech world’s fastest camera, 1012 fps captures traveling light
Boston Dynamic’s bipedal robot Atlas does backflip and parkour
soon for sale: $1m < price < $2m
10yrs ago drones were $m+ USA military secret tech
now Chinese drones rule the sky, DJI has ~60% mkt sh
$399 for Spark: its cheapest HD-video drone in stock
1.1m hobbyist drone fleet (USA, 2017), 870k registered owner-hobbyists
110k+ commercial drone fleet (USA, 2017), 75k certified pilots
60+ carmakers issued autonomous vehicle testing permits by CA DMV coming to a street near you
Waymo: approved to test on public roads w/o safety drivers present
Anthony Levandosky travels SF→NY on autonomous Prius if you’re going to try, go all the way
autonomous fixed-wing airplane Zipline: top speed of 128 km/h
100km/h cruising speed, 160km range, 1.75kg cargo capacity
<20% of Earth’s seafloor mapped (100% goal → 2030)
Saildrone charges $2.5k/day/drone to collect ocean data

MACHINE LEARNING (aka AI)

“The highest forms of understanding we can achieve
are laughter and human compassion.” -Richard Feynman (1988)

cpu power for AI training: 2x every 3.5mo, vs 18mo for Moore’s Law
22+ co designing custom chips for deep learning acceleration cheat sheets!
Microsoft/Google speech recog >95% match, surpasses human threshold
Reading comp w/unanswerable questions: human performance = 86.831
🥇Anonymous=83.536 🥈Layer 6 AI NLP=83.469 🥉Ping An=83.457
AlphaZero becomes world’s best Chess, Go, and Shogi player
starts from blank slate, no historical data, except game rules
FBI’s facial recognition database includes 50% of USA adult pop
ICE has access to 2.5b license plate recognition database
200m surveillance CCTV deployed by Chinese govt, 600m → 2020 📷 zoom in
other uses: Marriot → room check-ins, Taylor Swift → concert stalkers
combinations of ingredients to form metallic glass
scientists found 6k in 50yrs, vs ML → 20k in 1yr
fake porn videos, ML maps celebrity faces onto performers’ bodies
medical research/knowledge: 2x every 3.5yrs (2010), vs 50yrs in 1950
identifying skin cancer: AI = 95% accuracy > panel of doctors = 87%
breast cancer: LYmph Node Assistant algo achieves 99.6% accuracy papers
AlphaFold predicts a protein’s 3D structure based on genetic sequence
ChestX-ray8 has 100k+ chest X-Rays annotated images to train data
MSKCC (25m pathology slides database) execs found/invest Paige.ai

SOLAR ENERGY

“You don’t need a weatherman
to know which way the wind blows.” -Bob Dylan (1965)

0.0249$/kWh record-low solar energy contract, -100x since 1976
learning rate: cost falls 29% for every doubling in capacity 📈
new capacity global since 2012: renewable > fossil fuel
1TW of solar + wind gx capacity installed, 2nd TW to cost <50%
USA coal power plants: closed > open. 25% of open → closed by 2025
>10% of global energy consumption = renewable
Costa Rica’s *electricity* grid, new record: 300 days renewable only
on Sun 6-May-2018 solar panels generated 27% of UK’s electricity
vs 25% from natural gas + nuclear
China’s 2018 new battery-storage capacity > Σ previous yrs
from gigafactories (60% production mkt sh) to ‘gigacities’
cumulative installed solar photovoltaic capacity (1H 2018)
🥇China=165GW 🥈USA=62GW 🥉Japan=52GW
USA: #2 source of new capacity additions in 1H 2018
cumulative installed wind energy capacity (Q3 2018)
🥇China=198GW 🥈USA=90GW 🥉Germany=60GW
fastest-growing USA jobs: solar panel installers, wind turbine techs
CA: carbon-free electricity by 2045, utilities → 60% by 2030
solar panel on all new homes, starting 2020
LA’s 220k street lighting poles: solar before 2028 Olympics

ELECTRIC VEHICLES (aka SMART CARS)

“Mr. Musk—who is 45 years old, the same age as Mr. Ford was in 1908
when he released the Model T.” -WSJ (2017)

4.8m+ EVs currently on the road, plus 0.4m electric buses 📈
EV fleet: 🥇China=2.3m 🥈EU=1.4m 🥉USA=1.1m
preliminary: China sold 1m EVs in 2018
EVs outnumber public charging stations: USA=29:1, China=11:1
UK: gas st, new homes, new street lighting columns → “must add”
ChargePoint plans 2.5m charging points by 2025, up from 53k
Google Maps ‘EV charging stations’ displays nearby locations
“ban all diesel cars” club: 7 of the top 10 economies, 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇨🇦 → 😴
by 2030: India, Brazil, Italy. by 2040: China, Germany, UK, France
California: $7k subsidy to purchases of new clean cars
7%+ of vehicles sales in 2018 = electric
all public transit routes electric by 2040, EV-only purchases by 2029
375k+ Nissan Leaf sold: best-selling highway-capable EV
starts at $30k
full EV lineup: Volvo (2019), Peugeot (2019), MBenz (2022), VW (2030)
Porsche: $8b by 2020 to electrify *entire* lineup, drops diesel
Daimler: $23b to buy battery cells for EVs by 2030
VW: $50b e-plan, EV-only plant in China → the [Chinese] people’s car
car dealers, brace for a lot of pain: EV car maintenance 25-50% less
e-bikes (Harley Davidson), e-trains (Bombardier), e-planes (EasyJet)
from vacuums to EVs: Dyson earmarks $2.6b for EV plant in Singapore 📰 profile

CREATIVE CAPITAL

“No part of the GDP is immune to innovation.” -Vinod Khosla (2019) follow watch both
30m businesses in USA, 6.5k publicly listed companies
52% of Fortune 500 companies in 2000 → extinct
S&P 500 lifespans continue to shrink: 12yrs average 📰 what would Edison say
S&P500 mkt cap: Σ top 5 ≈ 13.4% ≈ Σ bottom 244
S&P500 constituents cash position: 2x in 10yrs
top 5 co by mkt cap: hq=USA, exchange=USA, comp adv=tech/investments
$160b investments by top 10 USA/China tech firms: 3x in 5yrs
40% = intangible assets, 30% = physical plant, 30% = deals
2011-17 USA company fundraising: private mkt > public mkt
Softbank’s $100b vision fund: 3 HQs, 80 professionals, $100m min check profile $45b/45min
$207b in global VC funding: $100b by USA VCs (2018) across 5.5k deals
8 states w/ $b+ VC ecosystem: 🥇CA=$55b 🥈NY=$13b 🗽 🥉MA=$10b
fundraising = blockchain’s killer app, code priced in real time
$17b via ICOs (2018), vs $3b by USA seed stage VCs
NVCA→SEC re non-qualifying investments: allow crypto + secondaries
$42b issued in P2P loans via LendingClub, 3.4m borrowers
$5b raised by social fundraising platform GoFundMe, 50m donors
$4b pledged to Kickstarter projects globally, 155k+ funded projects
$0.3b paid to 100k creators using Patreon
$0.3b raised via Facebook ‘birthday fundraisers’, 750k non-profits

SKILLS (aka HUMAN CAPITAL)

“Nobody owes you a career. Manage your career
so that you do not become a casualty.” -Andy Grove (1983)

learn to sell, learn to build. If you can do both → unstoppable
0% = *required* sales courses @ Harvard/Stanford MBA
100% = companies’ sales that comes from sales skills
programming = new literacy, 40% of USA schools teach it in 5-6 grade slides
25% of adults *unable* to use a computer (1.4b people)
25% of Goldman Sachs’ workforce (~10k) → computer engineers
MIT: $1B to integrate computing + AI studies to all fields of study
most significant change in the school’s curriculum since the 1950s
AI-based + blockchain: LinkedIn’s fastest-growing skills
AI PhDs fresh out of school comp: $400k/yr (+ stock)
vs >$100k avg blockchain developer salaries in NYC
Δ between engineering output = so high → best engineers = underpaid
if no price Δ between best and avg worker → occupation will disappear watch
6m USA jobs risk “degree inflation”: bachelor’s degree ≈ skills 📈
$26k for MS cpu/info tech from UPenn (full online via Coursera) 🎓
60m freelancers in USA (35% of USA workers) vs 3.6m cashier jobs
WeWork: largest office tenant in NYC, JPMChase at #2
Medium.com: 9% of writers >$100, $3k+ best story, $8k+ best author
Tips: $0.7b/yr Lyft drivers vs $0.6b/yr Uber drivers
USA labor mkt since Mar-2018: job openings > unemployed persons

CHINA

“The work ethic in Chinese tech companies
far outpaces their US rivals.” -Michael Moritz (2018)
📰 read
“9-9-6” schedule of Chinese tech employee: 9am-9pm, 6 day/wk
China pop = 4x USA, China STEM employees = 10x USA
China baffled w/ Silicon Valley’s hard time with hardware
in China: shipping atoms = shipping bits
Peter Thiel’s Zero to One, translated into Mandarin 必读
YC (top USA accelerator) announces startup program in China
Silicon Valley (10x innovation) terrified of China (20x), Europe (1x)
China R&D spending growing 18%/yr vs USA at 4%/yr
USA semiconductor companies “holding the fort” → ⏳?
Chinese espionage stealing trade secrets, recruiting Americans
DoJ accuses China’s Ministry of State Security of directing spies indictment
$50b VC investments in 2018 ≈ 25% of global VC (up from 5% in 2008)
$140b VC raised > $130b = USA, *first time ever*
#1 unicorn: Ant Financial $150b (China) > 2x Uber $72b (USA)
300+ unicorns global: USA=151, China=85. Decacorns: USA=12, China=5
37 Chinese IPOs in USA stock exchanges in 2018
China cuts restrictions, allows foreign majority ownership (some biz)
fully-owned Tesla electric car factory and Gigafactory 3 in China
automakers (Tesla, BMW, Ford) must give EV location data to govt
WeChat = the OS for the entire Chinese economy report

🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 “The most serious aspect of the American industrial invasion
lies in the fact that these incomers have acquired control of almost every
new industry created during the past fifteen years…What are the chief
new features in London life? They are, I take it, the telephone, the
portable camera, the phonograph, the electric street car, the automobile,
the type-writer, passenger lifts in houses, and the multiplication of
machine tools. In every one of these, save the petroleum automobiles,
the American maker is supreme; in several he is the monopolist.”

-Frederick Arthur Mackenzie (1901) must read

2. WINNER TAKES ALL & HOARDINGdownload 1-pager

“You call it monopoly,
I call it enterprise.” -John D. Rockefeller (1911) watch episodes

MICROSOFT (mkt cap $780b)

“Here comes the sun (doo doo doo doo).” -George Harrison (1969)
Windows + Office = the legacy business 📈
86% mkt sh in desktop operating system
1.5b/day Windows devices (installed base)
1.2b/day Office users, largest productivity service available
167m/mo paid active users (commercial + consumer licenses)
32m Office 365 consumer subscribers (cloud version)
Office 365 = 2x G Suite’s penetration in businesses
400m Outlook users (100m mobile), 300m Skype users
Cloud + AI platform = new engine of innovation
$26b+ for LinkedIn (2016): 590m profiles, 2 new members per second
$7.5b for GitHub (2018): outbidding Google, Amazon, Tencent, Atlassian
13% mkt sh (½ AWS, 2x Google) in cloud computing infra w/ Azure
QoQ growth = 2x AWS
Azure *premium*: 14 consecutive qtrs growing triple digits
150m/mo Cortana users
Word’s Resume Assistant (powered by LinkedIn) writes your resume
real-time translator: power point (60 langs), Skype (10 langs)
$4b/qtr spent in R&D, vs $15b in FY2017
samples cashier-less technology to Walmart and other retailers
155m Minecraft copies sold, 60m/mo Xbox Live users

APPLE (mkt cap $749b)

“Just the way he advertised:
Jesus, Gandhi, Me!” -Bill Burr (2012)

$237b cash on balance sheet > Portugal’s GDP
2b devices sold across: iPhone, iPad, Watch, Mac, iPod, AppleTV
2/3 of Americans own an Apple product
iPhone: most successful product of all times
86% of USA teens: next phone → iPhone, #1 signal of USA wealth 📊
1.5b cumulative iPhones sold since launch (Q2 2007)
vs 400m Sony Walkman, 130m Nokia 3310 back back in stock
iPhone defies economic gravity, raising prices
$800 avg selling price, vs $345+ for rest of industry
two tablet markets: iPads and generic cheap black plastic
iPad = 89% of tablets >$200 in USA, 27% global mkt sh
Apple Watch alone → Fortune 300 company, 4m watches sold in Q3 2018
Apple Watch sales > Σ Swiss watchmakers, last 5 consecutive qtrs
Google pays $12b/yr to remain the default search engine on iOS devices
up from $9b/yr in 2018
On track to spent $14b+ in R&D (2018) vs $12b for FY2017
500m Siri users, 240+ open positions (all-time high)
250m+ Apple Pay users, 90m Apple News readers (in 3yrs)
AirPod (wireless earbuds) becoming Apple fastest growing product
Project Titan: 72 SDV, 140 drivers → #3 fleet in CA

AMAZON (mkt cap $734b)

“If Amazon is in your line of business: Sell now. If Amazon is not in
your line of business: Sell now; your business sucks.” -@GSElevator (2017)
profile
#1 online retailer USA: 50% mkt sh (13x Walmart, 7x eBay)
5% of *all* USA retail
#1 online grocery USA: 30% mkt sh = all other supermarkets combined
1/3 of USA homes buy groceries online
#1 ebook seller USA: 83% mkt sh
#1 company by R&D spending: $21b (Q1-Q3 2018), vs $23b in FY2017
#1 cloud infrastructure provider: AWS=34% mkt sh
$20b in rev > Σ cloud (MSFT+GOOG+CRM+ORCL+BABA)
#1 voice-powered speaker in USA: 64% mkt sh
50m Echo w/ 70k skills control 4k devices from 1k+ unique brands in stock
#1 fulfillment co: 50 Amazon Air planes, 6k trailers, 20k Mercedes vans
600m SKUs vs 120k Walmart, 4k Costco
#2 largest private employer in USA by FTE (#1 Walmart)
Costco > Amazon employee salary: $15/hr > Walmart
cashier-less Amazon Go stores → 3k by 2021: Seattle✔️ SF✔️ Chicago✔️
>50% units sold on Amazon 2017 from 3rd-party sellers
100m+ Amazon prime members (> Costco’s): $1.3k/yr member spending
vs $1k/yr by Amazon customer, vs $1.7k/yr by Echo owner
#3 in ads: $2b/qtr business, 125% YoY (heads-up Google/Facebook)
54% product searches start/end on amazon.com vs 46% Σ search engines

ALPHABET (mkt cap $720b)

“Google searches are the most important dataset ever collected
on the human psyche.” -Seth Stephens-Davidowitz (2017)
must read
8 products with 1b+ MAU each
Search, Android, Maps, Chrome, YouTube, Google Play, Gmail, Drive
77% mkt sh in online search (desktop+mobile)
Android overtook Windows as the *internet* most used OS (Nov-2017)
launched in nov-2007, now 38%+ mkt sh, 3b active Android devices
Google Maps: Street View cars starting to map air quality now
2b Chrome installs in active use
#1 browser across all devices (60%+ mkt sh), vs Safari (#2, ~15%)
1.9b MAU on YouTube, 1b videos captioned in 10 languages
1b Google Drive users
4m paying customers on G Suite
Facebook considering G suite instead of Office/Dropbox/Salesforce
1b devices with Google Assistant
6m Google Home smart speakers sold in Q3 2018, behind Echo
leading employer of AI talent
13% ICML papers → Google/DeepMind author, up from 6.3% in 2017
Waymo’s fleet > 16m+ self-driving kms on public roads, vs Uber 6m+
logged more kms than all other competitors 📰 $100b+ valuation
$15b+ spent in R&D in Q1-Q3 2018, vs $17b in 2017
#1 tech company in USA by lobby expenditure

FACEBOOK (mkt cap $377b)

“If you’re offered a seat on a rocket ship,
don’t ask what seat! Just get on.” -Sheryl Sandberg (2012)
profile
2.6b people used at least one of Facebook’s apps per month
#1 mobile platform by marketer’s budget spent, ahead of Google
65%+ mobile social traffic, 20%+ digital ad revenue
90m biz profiles, 6m/mo active advertisers
100b/day messages across all Facebook apps
Facebook: 2.3b MAU, 1.5b DAU
2.8b fake accounts disabled (Oct-2017 – Sep-2018)
Messenger: 1.3b MAU with 500 FTE, 10b/mo biz-ppl messages
goal: never dial a 1-800 number again
56% of people rather message than call customer service
400m/mo call/video chat, 20m businesses, 300k bots
WhatsApp: 1.5b MAU with 250 FTE, 65b/day messages
begins verifying biz accounts (green badge on profiles)
click-to-chat button on website → message a business
Business API → biz respond using WhatsApp (Uber✔️)
Instagram: 1b MAU with 700 FTE, 400m/day stories
25m biz-specific profiles, 2m/mo active advertisers
blue badge = legitimacy seal, selling for $1k-7k on black mkt
$7b R&D in Q1-Q3 2018, vs $8b in 2017
~40 people working at Facebook’s blockchain group → payments?

TENCENT (mkt cap 376b)

“Ideas are not important in China –execution is.” – Pony Ma (2011) watch
**Section to be added in Q1 2019**

TESLA (mkt cap $57b)

“Musk has made every Tesla customer
a venture capitalist.” -Steve LeVine (2016)

most valuable USA car maker: Tesla = 1.2x GM, = 1.9x Ford
Tesla’s FTEs = 22% Ford, = 25% GM
best car ownership experience on the planet
buy online + over-the-air *software-update*
autopilot “summons” vehicle to pull in/out parking spot sorry city meter
84k+ vehicles delivered in Q1-Q3 2018 📊

5k/wk goal Model 3 production → surpassed, 6k/wk
models S,3,X awarded perfect 5-star safety rating by NHTSA
Elon: “from production hell to delivery logistics hell”
$2b into China plant, 1m/yr production target by 2020
largest foreign-backed manufacturing facility in Shanghai
Model S, starts at $78k, WR longest-range any EV
faster than any Ferrari or Lamborghini, 0-60mph in 2.5s
Model X, starts at $84k, WR longest-range electric SUV
Model 3 starts at $46k, 420k+ reservations at $1k deposit
0-60mph in 3.3s, 210km/h top speed, 350km range
#1 by mkt sh: 23% of USA small-medium luxury cars
Roadster 2G, to be quickest production car ever: 0-60mph in 1.9s
reservations at $50k, ‘Founder Series’ → $250k *upfront* place reservation
$1.4b R&D in 2017: +2k Semi truck reservations (starts at $150k)

ORGANIZATION HOARDING

“The banks took the money the American people gave them,
and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses
and lobby the Congress to kill big reform.” -The Big Short (2016)
read watch
Corporate: cash+ST+LT investments
$237b Apple
$138b Microsoft
$106b Alphabet
$60b GE
$43b Cisco
Robo-advisors
$112b Vanguard PAS
$33b Schwab Intelligent
$14b Betterment
$10b Wealthfront
$8b Personal Capital
Private vehicles: (strategy)
$99b Softbank Vision Fund (PE/VC)
$20b Blackstone IX (RE)
$20b Brookfield Infra Fund IV (Infra)
$13b GS Mezzanine Partners VII (PD)
$8b KKR Global Infra Inv III (NR)
Foundations: non-profit
$52b Bill & Melinda Gates
$31b Wellcome Trust
$20b H. Hughes Medical Institute
$16b Garfield Weston
$14b Ford Foundation
University endowments: 📝congressional letter
$39b Harvard – reponse to Congress
$31b UTexas – overview
$29b Yale
$27b Stanford
$26b Princeton – response to Congress
Religious organizations: “reserve” funds…highly obscure data
USA: religion #1 recipient, 100% tax exempt, no obligation to keep books
$127b in 2017 alone ≈ 1.3x VC ecosystem report, go to pg 54
History lesson: “Cash that’s off the books can disappear.”

$32b Church of LDS (Mormon)
$21b The United Methodist Church
$13b Southern Baptist Convention
$11b Church of England
$6b Catholic Church USA

INDIVIDUALS HOARDING

“There is nothing so disturbing to one’s well-being and judgement
as to see a friend get rich.” -Charles Kindleberger (1978)

Athletes: ex-endorsements
$275m Floyd Mayweather 🥊
$84m Lionel Messi ⚽
$61m Cristiano Ronaldo ⚽
$85m Conor McGregor 🥋
$85m Neymar ⚽
Actors
$239m George Clooney (57yrs)
$119m Dwayne Johnson (46yrs)
$79m Robert Downey Jr (53yrs)
$65m Chris Hemsworth (35yrs)
$46m Jackie Chan (64yrs)
Musicians
$110m Ed Sheeran
$100m Bruno Mars
$83m Katy Perry
$80m Taylor Swift
$77m Jay-Z
CEO: publicly listed co
$103m Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO)
$101m First Data (NYSE:FDC)
$70m Live Nation (NYSE:LYV)
$68m CBS (NYSE:CBS)
$67m Liberty Media (NASDAQ:BATRA)
Models
$23m Kendall Jenner
$13m Karlie Kloss
$12m Chrissy Teigen
$12m Rosie Huntington-Whitely
$10m Gisele Bundchen
Billionaires: TGP=The Giving Pledge
$135b Jeff Bezos
$93b Bill Gates – TGP
$84b Warren Buffet – TGP
$68b Amancio Ortega
$67b Bernard Arnault

SOVEREIGN HOARDING

“The rules!” shouted Ralph, “you’re breaking the rules!”
“Who cares?” -Lord of the Flies (1954)

GDP: 2017, current prices
$19.4t 🇺🇸 USA
$12.2t 🇨🇳 China
$4.9t 🇯🇵 Japan
$3.7t 🇩🇪 Germany
$2.6t 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Military power: 0=perfect score
0.0818 🇺🇸 USA
0.0841 🇷🇺 Russia
0.0852 🇨🇳 China
0.1417 🇮🇳 India
0.1869 🇫🇷 France
Fiat currencies: avg daily trading (Forex trading)
$4.5t (90%) 🇺🇸 dollar
$1.5t (31%) 🇪🇺 euro
$1.0t (21%) 🇯🇵 yen
$0.7t (12%) 🇬🇧 pound sterling
$0.4t (7%) 🇦🇺 dollar
Rich individuals: net worth > $50m
38k 🇺🇸 USA
13k 🇨🇳 China + Hong Kong
10k 🇯🇵 Japan
8k 🇩🇪 Germany
6k 🇨🇦 Canada
SWF: non-pension, funds for “rainy days” + “future generations”
$1.0t 🇳🇴 Norway “Oil Fund” SWF
$0.9t 🇨🇳 China Investment Corporation
$0.7t 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
$0.6t 🇰🇼 Kuwait Investment Authority
$0.5t 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio
Gold reserves: tonnes in central banks at $1,282/oz
$368b 🇺🇸 USA
$152b 🇩🇪 Germany
$127b 🇮🇹 Italy
$111b 🇫🇷 France
$110b 🇨🇳 China

3. DISRUPTING THE INCUMBENTS

“The battle between every startup and incumbent
comes down to whether the startup gets distribution
before the incumbent gets innovation.” -Alex Rampell (2015) follow

DATING

“So, I asked him: What did you search?
And he goes: Jewish and my zip code!” -Aziz Ansari (2015)
follow watch read
200m/mo use digital dating services pre app era
15%+ of top 15 apps by iOS revenue: dating
#1 place (USA) where singles met their last first date: app 📰 singles in America 2018
55% of singles have created a dating profile
45% of singles have dated someone they met online
Match Group owns top brands: 8m+ paid members total
Tinder, Match.com, OkCupid, Plenty of Fish, Hinge
Tinder: 50m active users, 4m paid members
#2 (non-game) app by consumer spend 2018 (AppStore+GooglePlay)
vs #2 Netflix → “Netflix and Chill?”
Bumble: 46m active users
Parent company Rimberg International considering IPO
Facebook launches dating service in Colombia, global roll-out to come
10m active members on ‘compensated dating’ app Seeking Arrangement
8m sugar babies, 2m sugar daddy/momma
1/7 of kids ages 12-17 have sent a sext (sex+text)
increases 4%/yr each additional year of age
UK’s compulsory age check for online porn, starts: April 2019
porn is the biggest development in sexuality research ever
Pornhub network: 22m users, 90m/mo visits, 110b/yr video views 📰 Pornhub = Kinsey Report 2.0

RIDES

“The height of civilization isn’t the poor owning cars
but the rich sharing bikes.” -Horace Dediu (2017)
follow
NYC taxi medallion: from $1.3m (2013) to <$180k in Dec-2018
NYC sets $17.22/hr min wage for ride-hailing drivers
70k ride-hailing drivers vs 13k yellow cabs (50k drivers)
London proposes cap on ride-hailing: 87k drivers vs 21k black cars
first studies out: ride-hailing increases traffic and deaths report
Uber: moves more people than Σ airline industry 📊
2019 IPO → ~$120b > Σ top 7 USA airlines (AA+UA+DL+WN+AS+B6+NK)
10b+ rides, 790 cities, 65 countries, 3m drivers, 70% USA mkt sh
$15/mo “ride-pass”, JUMP-branded bikes/scooters, Uber Air → 2020 your uber stats
Lyft ($15b → 2019 IPO): 21 consecutive qtr w/ 100% growth
1b+ rides, 95% of USA pop (50 states, 640+ cities), 28% USA mkt sh
acq Motivate = 80% of USA bike-share (Citi Bike, Ford GoBike, etc)
shared scooters/bikes at 500m/users, fastest tech adoption in history history lesson
streets/sidewalk wars: daytime bicycles in London today = 4x 1999
China=16m bikes: Shanghai=1.5m (1:16 residents), Beijing=2.4m (1:5)
30k scooters in SD+LA, limited permits in SF/Silicon Valley
Lime ($b val, Uber=investor) adds 50 Fiat 500 “LimePods” in Seattle
operates e-bikes/scooters in USA, UK and Australia
16yrs old SpaceX: 64% mkt sh (rockets launched), cargo + passengers
rockets launched by SpaceX > any company/country 📊

ASSISTANTS

“Alexa is a revelation for the blind.” -Ian Bogost (2018)
people speak ~150 words/min vs type ~40 words/min
voice speech recognition tech → open source 📊
smart speaker: best-selling and fastest-growing consumer gadget
20m shipped in Q3, 3.5x Q1 2018 📊
China: fastest growing speaker market
Amazon’s Echo: 55m+ to date, 64% USA mkt sh, 6.3m shipped in Q3
Microsoft Cortana integrated w/ Amazon Alexa, works on Xbox One
Facebook Portal w/ Alexa built-in
Apple Music now live on Amazon Echo speakers
Sonos multi-voice smart speaker S13, supports Alexa first
Garmin’s car navigation Speak, powered by Alexa
Google Home: Mini → top-selling speaker in Q2 2018
30% USA mkt sh, but catching up fast
orders from Walmart and Carrefour enabled via Google Assistant
Bose QC35 II headphones, powered by Google Assistant
Ikea lightbulbs integrated with Google Assistant (and Alexa)
Bang & Olufsen’s BeoSound enabled by Google Assistant
Apple’s HomePod: 1.1m sold in Q3, starts at $349
Baidu’s DuerOS: assistant available on 150m devices, 35m MAU
Alibaba’s Tmall Genie: 2.2m sold in Q3, starts at $79

COMMUNICATIONS

“😂 word of the year 2015” -Oxford Dictionaries (2015)
text messaging → most used data service in the world
3-Dec-1992: first SMS message, 20b/day today
vs 65b/day on WhatsApp, 40b/day on WeChat
55% of USA households no longer have landlines
2m+ developers on Twilio’s cloud communication API
WhatsApp powered by Twilio API
VoIP migration from traditional phone network, deadline dates:
Deutsche Telekom (2022), BT (2025), Orange (2030)
Unicode approves 160 new emojis (2.8k total) v 470k entries on M-W
“Face with Tears of Joy” emoji = most popular emoji
most-used emoji on Twitter, 2.1x more than ❤️ (#2)
top langs for web content: 🥇English>50%, 🥈German>6%, 🥉Russian=6%
NSA collected metadata on 530m phone calls in 2017, 3.5x 2016
open source Signal Protocol powers the encryption of:
Facebook’s WhatsApp, Microsoft’s Skype, Google’s Allo
Slack (2019 IPO → $10b): 8m DAU, 3m paying users, 70k paying co
~3t photos taken on film ever, 1t by iPhone users (2017)
most pictured: #1 scenery, #2 information I need to remember
50m/week listen to a podcast (USA)
Apple’s Podcasts app: 50%+ USA mkt sh, 610k shows, 4.3m episodes

FRAUD (ADS=PROPAGANDA)

“So it learns information about me?” -Ron Swanson (2017)
50%+ of USA women >25yrs → dye their hair, 7% in 1956 📊 revlon hair color division
40% of those → blonde. Naturally genetic blonde rate: ~2%
$200b+ USA ad industry → 50%+ digital
Google/Facebook duopoly = 60% of digital > 2x (print + radio) 📰 triopoly?
*mobile* ad spending > TV (first time by 2018E)
Global ad blocking users: 380m mobile, 230m desktop
120m active devices use Adblock Plus
700 ad networks w/ 100k+ clicks analyzed = 15% avg fraud
only 23 networks = fraud-free
1% of the top 50k websites track visitors’ keystrokes
2b stolen passwords/usernames on the black market
0.2% of top 1m sites → cryptojacking, hacker earns $6/day
WhatsApp confirms it will put ads within is Status feature
DuckDuckGo now claims 30m searches per day
10yrs old privacy-focused search engine and profitable profile
FBI: 1 in 4 victims respond by wiring money to fraudsters (USA)
two types of orgs: been hacked, don’t yet know they’ve been hacked
Adobe developing img manipulation detection → spot photoshopped paper
fraudsters pay $60 for passport scan plus utility bill or selfie
‘deepfake’ videos: oppty for new/powerful forms of manipulation

PAYMENTS (CREDIT’S CAC)

“This is a Trojan horse of epic proportions.
And the US consumer will easily be co-opted.” -Josh Wolfe (2018)
follow
credit/debit cards payments > cash payments
contactless payments: 92%=Australia, 49%=UK, 0.6%=USA
Sweden’s cash tx 13%, 3-5yrs → cashless?, tipping point at 7% 📰 no one left behind?
18% of adults own a credit card
Visa + Mastercard = 70%+ mkt sh, get paid ~3%/tx
1.7b people remain unbanked (17%), untapped mkt!
20% of global smartphone users → phone = wallet
China’s mobile payments users, world’s largest when in China
🥇TenPay(WeChat)=800m 🥈Alipay=520m 🥉Baidu Wallet=130m
260m people w/ credit score in Ant Financial, vs 200m with FICO
PayPal: 255m accts, 20m merchant, $5b loans via PayPal Working Capital
$PYPL mkt cap $100b > $80b Amex. Venmo: $17b payments in Q3 2018
60% of PayPal users abandon tx if no PayPal checkout 🔗
Square: 90m customer profiles, 30k stores, $0.4b loans in Q3 2018
34m Cash App downloads > Venmo’s 33m
Stripe: credit cards + ACH debits transactions across 26 countries
supports Apple Pay, TenPay, Alipay, Square Cash, Android Pay
250m+ Apple Pay users, 60% USA retail locations, #1 contactless payment
5k partnering banks, across 25 countries, credit card w/ GSachs
USA in-store app:🥇Starbucks=24m users 🥈ApplePay=20m 🥉GooglePay=11m

COMMERCE (aka STORES 2.0)

“World’s largest company by sales (Walmart)
is now the perceived underdog.” -The Economist (2017)

8.8k retail stores closed in USA 2018 > 6.2k in 2008. But 12.6k opened
Sears 2018: 1k stores closed, files chapter 11, “rescue plan” on
Costco’s simple 40yrs old formula works must read slides
Kylie Jenner (age=21): owns $330m/yr biz, set-to-be youngest $b
front-office = 125m Instagram followers, back-office → Shopify
Shopify: 600k merchants, 175 countries, stock up +800% since IPO
consumer goods’ ARPU: global avg = $0.7k ≈ China
🥇US=$1.9k 🥈UK=$1.7k 🥉Canada=$1.6k
China: $1t online sales, 80% mobile, 21% of retail sales
online retail market: to 2x in 2yrs
$31b Alibaba’s singles day: $1b→1min 25s, $10b→1hr 1min, 90%=mobile
USA: $0.4t+ online sales, 34% mobile, 13% of retail sales
$7.9b Cyber Mon (36% mobile), $6.2b Black Fri ($1b w/ PayPal mobile)
~$80b+ spend in global app stores 2018E ≈ IBM revenues
Apple App Store net revenue per download = 4x Google Play
Black Friday (USA sales): $52m App Store > 2x $24m Google Play
Walmart partners w/ Postmates for grocery deliver (Ford involved) e-Walmart mafia
Postmates: 550 cities, 60% USA households, 3m/mo orders, $1.2b GMV
Etsy=2m sellers (99.9% USA counties), Stitch Fix=2.7m clients
7-Eleven launches Scan & Pay in Dallas: use app, skip register

TV

“For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain,
there can be no mercy…hunt or be hunted.” -Francis Underwood (2014)

2018 original programming budget: $11b Netflix
vs $5b Amazon, $3b Hulu, $2b HBO, $1b Apple, $1b Facebook
Netflix (Oscars=2): 137m paid subs globally
#1 non-game app by revenue (App Store + Google Play)
USA: 60m+ paid subs > 47m subs Σ cable companies
Netflix = HBO = 23 Emmys ea, first time HBO ≠ #1 by nominations
Netflix compression tech: 3.3x Amazon Prime, 7.0x Apple iTunes report
Disney ends deal w/ Netflix, to launch disneyplus.com by end of year
Family: Disney/Pixar/Marvel/StarWars/NatGeo
Sports: ESPN+ for $5/mo → 1m subs already
85m+ ESPN USA subs, *crown jewel of cable TV* in your face [Netflix]
Hulu (controlled by Disney): 23m USA subscribers
Amazon (Oscars=3): movie library is 4x Netflix, 2x Hulu
hires M. Donoghue from ESPN (19yrs) to oversee sports division
won Premier League streaming rights
HBO (Time Warner): 140m+ global subs, 5m HBO Now subs (USA)
Apple partners w/ S. Spielberg & Oprah Winfrey for original content
Baidu-owned iQiyi: 81m+ paying subs, to launch physical movie theatre
YouTube: TV = fastest-growing market
$40/mo, 60+ networks, ~100 markets, claims 800k+ subscribers

MUSIC

“We don’t ask you for free iPhones. Please don’t ask us to provide
you with our music for no compensation.” -Taylor Swift (2015)
💪 To Apple, Love Taylor
streaming is industry’s biggest source of revenue they won…in court
$19b global sales 2018E, 4yrs of growth, still at 75% 1999
Spotify: 83m paid subscribers, 190m+ total active
~8% equity swap w/ Tencent Music Entertainment
TME 655m MAU, 25m paying users
Spotify mkt cap ≈ TME mkt cap ≈ $25b
Apple Music: 56m paid subscribers, plus ~5m trial subs
overtakes Spotify in USA (27m vs 24m), Canada, and Japan
explores acq of iHeartMedia, operates 850 stations in USA (#1)
“Scorpion” by Drake (#1 album of 2018) after 24hrs release
170m streams on Apple Music vs 130m on Spotify
YouTube Music now in 21 countries, videos/audio/lists all in one
free with ads or $10/mo, $5/mo for students
30 YouTube music videos >2b views vs 18 Spotify songs >1b streams
“Hello” by Adele: 0→1b YouTube views: 87 days
vs “Shape of You” by Ed Sheeran: 0→1b Spotify streams: 153 days
“Despacito” by Luis Fonsi (Jan-2017), #1 music video: 5.9b views 📈
Taylor Swift, releases *video* of “Delicate” on Spotify before YouTube
20m+ Amazon Music Unlimited subs, $10/m for Prime members
Winamp returns w/ mobile/desktop app, reached 60m users in 2011 🔗

BONUS

“Facts don’t care about your feelings.” -Ben Shapiro (2016)
Brokerage: 6m accts on $0 fee app Robinhood > 2x E*TRADE
Cycling: 600k Peloton subscribers cycling from home
Grammar: 15m/day checking grammar on Grammarly
Gym: 5.5m Fitness Blender subscribers
Food stamps: Propel manages food benefits of 1.5m Americans
Homework: 100m 12-18 year olds asking questions on Brainly
Locksmith: 2k KeyMe smart-kiosks across USA
Lost & found: 20m Tile trackers sold
Meditation: 1m paying subscribers on Headspace
Muslims: 12m/mo pray using Muslim Pro app
News: 3m NYT digital-only paying subscribers 📈
Neighborhoods: 210k neighborhoods on Nextdoor (90% of USA)
Period: 22m women track their period with Flo app
Pets: 200k vetted dog sitters on Rover
Policy: 270m users petitioning governments on Change.org
Religion: 260k communities on Pray.com
Spas: 70k subs to wellness-appointment marketplace MindBody good analysis
Textbooks: 100k students using online textbooks by Packback
Vaping: e-cigarette maker Juul has 71% mkt sh USA
Video: 500m/mo users of 15s video-sharing app Tik Tok